"Possibility of COVID-19 Resurgence This Summer"... Is Nationwide 4th Vaccine Dose Becoming a Reality?

Daily COVID-19 Cases Expected to Reach 100,000-200,000 This Summer
US Sees Steady Increase in Infections Over the Past Month

Vaccination.
Photo by Asia Economy

[Asia Economy Reporter Na Ye-eun] As the likelihood of a resurgence of COVID-19 this summer increases due to the emergence of new variants and waning immunity, attention is focused on the government's decision regarding the '4th vaccine dose.'

Health authorities, who have disclosed expert predictions that daily confirmed cases could reach 100,000 to 200,000 if COVID-19 resurges this summer, stated that in June to July, the number of new cases could be at least four times and up to eight times higher than the current levels.

Park Hyang, head of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters (CDSCH) under the Ministry of Health and Welfare, said, "Even if a resurgence occurs, experts estimate daily confirmed cases to be around 100,000 to 200,000," adding, "Although hospital beds are being reduced, we are separately preparing emergency treatment beds and allocating funds."

The trend of new confirmed cases over the past two weeks (May 12?25) was '35,895 → 32,441 → 29,576 → 25,425 → 13,290 → 35,104 → 31,342 → 28,124 → 25,120 → 23,457 → 19,289 → 9,973 → 26,344 → 23,956.' The average daily number of locally transmitted cases over the past week is 22,301.

Although the epidemic appears stable around 20,000 cases, the health authorities judge that the decline is slow. Typically, COVID-19 tends to subside during the hot summer months, but due to the impact of the Omicron variant, complacency is not possible.

Accordingly, health authorities are considering administering the 4th dose to those under 60 years old. Lim Sook-young, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters (CDCH) at the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA), said, "The 4th dose is currently being administered to those aged 60 and above," and added, "We will comprehensively review the situation, including the epidemic status, vaccine effectiveness, new vaccine development trends, and overseas cases, and announce a vaccination strategy for the second half of the year."

However, concerns about vaccine side effects, an increase in breakthrough infections during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the lifting of quarantine measures have led to a reluctance to get vaccinated. Currently, the 4th dose vaccination rate among the entire population is 7.6%, which is significantly lower compared to the over 85% vaccination rates recorded for the 1st and 2nd doses.

Medical staff are conducting COVID-19 tests at a hospital in southern Florida, USA. / Photo by AP Yonhap News

Meanwhile, the situation overseas is more severe. According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), COVID-19 infections have steadily increased over the past month in the United States, with hospitalizations among elderly Americans rising sharply.

According to a report by The New York Times (NYT), as of the 19th, the seven-day average of new confirmed cases in the U.S. increased by 52% compared to two weeks ago, reaching 103,537 cases, and the daily average number of hospitalizations rose by 31% to 23,860.

In particular, New York State is recording about 9,000 to 10,000 new cases daily. The seven-day average positivity rate rose from the 5% range last month to 8.1% recently. As of the 21st, New Jersey reported 3,960 COVID-19 cases, a 10% increase compared to a week ago and a 139% increase compared to a month ago.

Accordingly, the CDC recommends that "adults aged 50 and older, or individuals aged 12 and older with compromised immune systems, who received their first booster shot at least four months ago, should receive a second booster shot."

Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), warned on the 22nd (local time) that "the COVID-19 pandemic is definitely not over."

He expressed concern that "testing rates have plummeted, and the virus is spreading in 70 countries worldwide," adding, "One billion people in low-income countries remain unvaccinated." He further noted, "Deaths are increasing in Africa, where vaccination rates are low. Only 57 wealthy countries have achieved a vaccination rate of 70% of their population."

Deborah Birx, former White House COVID-19 response coordinator, also predicted in an interview with CBS on the 1st (local time) that "natural immunity among the general public weakens 4 to 6 months after vaccination," and warned, "There will be a massive surge again."