Kim Dong-hwan 8.2%, Undecided Voters 25.1% Survey Results
[Asia Economy Honam Reporting Headquarters Reporter Lee Jun-kyung] In the final public opinion poll conducted ahead of the June 1 local elections for the Jeonnam Superintendent of Education, candidates Kim Dae-jung and Jang Seok-woong showed the same support rate, indicating a neck-and-neck race until the very end.
On the 25th, five local media outlets?Namdo Ilbo, Jeonnam Maeil, Gwangju Maeil, Gwangju Buddhist Broadcasting, and Gwangju Dream?jointly commissioned the polling specialist firm R&Search Co., Ltd. to conduct a survey on the 22nd targeting 801 adult men and women aged 18 or older residing in Jeonnam (weighted 801 respondents). The results of the 'Jeonnam Superintendent of Education Support' poll showed that candidates Kim Dae-jung and Jang Seok-woong each received 33.4%. Candidate Kim Dong-hwan was recorded at 8.2%.
By age group, candidate Kim led with 35.0% among those aged 60 and over, 3.7 percentage points ahead of candidate Jang’s 31.3%. Candidate Jang led in the 40s age group with 41.7%, which was 10.3 percentage points higher than Kim’s 31.4%. By region, candidate Kim recorded 35.4% support in Gangjin, Mokpo, Muan, Sinan, Yeongam, Wando, Jangheung, Jindo, and Haenam, 3.1 percentage points higher than candidate Jang’s 32.3%. Candidate Jang led in Yeosu, Suncheon, Gwangyang, Goheung, Gokseong, Gurye, and Boseong with 34.5%, 3.0 percentage points ahead of Kim’s 31.5%. Candidate Kim showed an advantage within the margin of error in the western region, while candidate Jang led in the eastern region (sampling error ±3.5 percentage points at 95% confidence level).
The 'No preferred candidate' category was 17.9%, and 'Don’t know' was 7.2%, making the 'undecided' group 25.1%. Among the active voter group, support was 36.4% for candidate Jang and 34.7% for candidate Kim, showing a close race within the margin of error with a 1.7 percentage point difference.
When deciding the Jeonnam Superintendent of Education, local residents considered 'Policy and Vision (43.2%)' the most important criterion. This was followed by 'Character (22.5%)', 'Educational Experience (16.5%)', 'Electability (5.3%)', 'Others (8.0%)', and 'Don’t know (4.5%)'.
With both candidates Kim Dae-jung and Jang Seok-woong tied at 33.4% in this poll, neither can confidently claim victory. Candidate Jang, who initially expected a favorable wind, is reportedly troubled by Kim’s unexpected pursuit and is working on countermeasures.
The superintendent election has broken the perception that the incumbent always has the advantage in a 'dark election.' Candidate Kim has nearly caught up with or surpassed candidate Jang in various polls so far. Although candidate Jang still leads overall, Kim’s rising momentum suggests a possible dramatic turnaround in the final stages.
With candidate Kim’s fierce pursuit challenging candidate Jang’s incumbent premium, this superintendent election is expected to feature intense battles until the very end.
This poll was conducted using a structured questionnaire with samples extracted through virtual numbers provided by three news agencies, using 100% wireless virtual number automated response surveys. The response rate was 11.6%, with a sampling error of ±3.5 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Weighting was applied by region, gender, and age based on the resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of April 2022.
For detailed survey outlines and results, please refer to the website of the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.
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