[June 1 Local Election Battleground⑧] Will Paju, a 'New Town Area' Dominated by 3040s, Shake the Opposition's Stronghold?

Going to the Hotspot ⑧ Paju

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jun-yi] Paju, Gyeonggi Province, where a new town was developed over 10 years ago, has a high proportion of residents in their 30s and 40s. Because of this, the progressive vote share was high in recent elections, but this election has become difficult to predict due to variables such as the 'Yoon Seok-yeol premium.'

Paju, which had a strong conservative vote as a military border area, became more progressive after the development of Unjeong New Town in 2010 brought a large influx of young people in their 30s and 40s. In the 2018 local elections, Choi Jong-hwan, then the Democratic Party candidate for Paju mayor, won with 60.83% of the vote, defeating Park Jae-hong of the Liberty Korea Party, who received 29.34%. In the Gyeonggi Province governor election at that time, Paju also showed a 22.73 percentage point lead with Democratic candidate Lee Jae-myung receiving 57.22% over Liberty Korea Party candidate Nam Kyung-pil's 34.49%.

In this presidential election as well, Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, showed a clear progressive color in Paju by securing 53.30% of the vote, ahead of Yoon Seok-yeol, then the People Power Party candidate, who received 42.99%, by a margin of 10.31 percentage points.

However, with the election of President Yoon Seok-yeol, variables are likely to arise in the local elections. This Paju mayoral election was narrowed down to a two-way race between Kim Kyung-il of the Democratic Party and Cho Byung-guk of the People Power Party after Choi Jong-hwan, the incumbent mayor who left the Democratic Party and ran as an independent, unified with Kim Kyung-il. Cho emphasized the 'Yoon sentiment,' stating, "I will work as one team with President Yoon and Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport Won Hee-ryong to realize the extension of Subway Line 3 to Paju, which the Democratic Party's lawmakers for 10 years and the Paju mayor for 4 years have failed to achieve." On the 23rd, he also held a policy agreement with Kim Eun-hye, the Gyeonggi Province governor candidate, and jointly appealed for support.

However, the outcome is difficult to predict easily. Recent polls show Cho's support slightly higher, but due to the unification, votes that supported Choi may shift to Kim. In a poll conducted by Gyeongin Ilbo through Monopsearch on the 6th and 7th, surveying 505 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Paju (confidence level 95%, margin of error ±4.4 percentage points, according to the Public Opinion Deliberation Commission), Cho received 37.7%, Kim 34.1%, and Mayor Choi 9.7%.