[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Possibility of North Korea ICBM Provocation Within the Next 96 Hours

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] There is an assessment that North Korea may carry out an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launch ahead of the South Korea-U.S. summit.

CNN cited an analysis from U.S. intelligence officials on the 17th (local time), stating, "North Korea could conduct a test launch within the next 48 to 96 hours ahead of U.S. President Joe Biden's Asia tour."

Considering that President Biden is scheduled to arrive in South Korea on the afternoon of the 20th (Korean time), it is noteworthy that there is a possibility of an ICBM test launch during Biden's visit. Given North Korea's past pattern of launching ICBMs using a Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL), attention is being drawn to the possibility of a similar surprise launch this time as well.

North Korea has expressed its intention to strengthen its military power aimed at the United States. On the 15th, the North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated in an article titled "The United States is the main culprit for the escalation of the situation on the Korean Peninsula," that "the Group of Seven (G7) Non-Proliferation Directors infringed upon North Korea's legitimate right to self-defense," and pointed out that the U.S. is responsible for worsening the situation on the Korean Peninsula, vowing to strengthen its military power.

The G7, in a joint statement released on the 9th, condemned North Korea for breaking its promise of a moratorium on nuclear tests and ICBM launches by carrying out an ICBM launch in March, and called for a unified response from the international community.

Our military believes that North Korea has completed a certain level of preparation for military provocations. On the 17th, Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop said at the National Assembly Defense Committee plenary session, "(North Korea's 7th nuclear test) is largely prepared in many aspects." Although North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un expressed great concern over the spread of COVID-19, calling it a "great upheaval (Daedongran)," the possibility that he may make a political decision to proceed with a nuclear test cannot be ruled out.