[Correspondent Column] The US-China Conflict Is a Global Expansion of the Warring States Period's Alliance Strategies

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Jo Young-shin] As the power of the Zhou (周) kings weakened, Qin (秦), Yan (燕), Zhao (趙), Qi (齊), Wei (魏), Han (韓), and Chu (楚) rose to compete for dominance over the Chinese continent. These are called the Seven Warring States. Those who were merely feudal lords began to call themselves kings and started deadly battles against each other. Among the Seven Warring States, the most powerful was Qin. The other six states were reluctant to confront Qin one-on-one.

At this time, the figures who emerged were Su Qin (蘇秦) and Zhang Yi (張儀). Su Qin and Zhang Yi were disciples of Guiguzi (known as the founder of the Hundred Schools of Thought during the Warring States period). Su Qin was the first to apply Guiguzi’s teachings to real-world politics. Su Qin took his strategy, the Vertical Alliance (Hezong), and went to the state of Yan. He persuaded the king of Yan that if the six states united their forces, they could stand against Qin. Su Qin then visited Zhao, Qi, Wei, Han, and Chu, convincing them that the Vertical Alliance was the only way to survive, securing their seals on the alliance treaty. The core of the Vertical Alliance strategy was for multiple states to join forces to eliminate the strongest one by one and unify the realm. Su Qin enjoyed great power as the joint prime minister of the six states.

Meanwhile, Zhang Yi, who studied alongside Su Qin, completed his studies under Guiguzi and entered real politics. Zhang Yi’s strategy was the Horizontal Alliance (Lianheng). The Horizontal Alliance was based on the power dynamics of “chaos in the east, strength in the west” (Dongluan Xida, 東亂西大) on the Chinese continent. It argued that the powerful state of Qin should manage and supervise the other six states to stabilize the realm. After many twists and turns, Zhang Yi became the prime minister of Qin.

With Su Qin’s assassination, the balance between the Vertical and Horizontal Alliances was broken. Qin, led by the Horizontal Alliance, dismantled the six states. The fracture began in Qi. When Qin offered land, Qi took the bait. With the disappearance of Su Qin as the unifying figure, Han was the first to fall, followed by Zhao, Wei, Chu, Yan, and Qi in succession. In 221 BCE, King Zheng of Qin (Qin Shi Huang) unified the Central Plains, bringing the chaotic Warring States period to an end.

The global situation in 2022 is an expanded version of the Warring States period. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Western bloc led by the United States is consolidating. To draw an analogy, Russia is like the Jin (晉) state during the Spring and Autumn period. Jin split into Han, Wei, and Zhao and disappeared into history. As the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia is merely a variable. Although there are concerns that Russia might revert to its former Soviet form, that is water under the bridge. The constant is China (Qin). Some countries in Latin America, Africa, and parts of Europe have sided with China. Since they receive economic support from China, they are closer to the Horizontal Alliance.

The hegemon, the United States (Zhou dynasty), has reorganized a new framework through the Vertical Alliance centered on its allies, such as the Quad (United States, Australia, India, Japan) and AUKUS (United States, United Kingdom, Australia security alliance) (While the Zhou dynasty was a hollow shell during the Warring States period, the United States remains the world’s strongest country in 2022). The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) also seems unwilling to just watch. Already concerned about China’s hegemonic ambitions, NATO has further confirmed China’s influence due to the Russia-Ukraine war. The invasion has clearly defined the lines between the two camps, and U.S. pressure on China will intensify. China’s resistance is also expected to be formidable.

There is no room for dispute that the Vertical and Horizontal Alliances of Su Qin and Zhang Yi over 2,300 years ago directly apply to the harsh international relations where today’s allies become tomorrow’s enemies, and yesterday’s foes become today’s allies. The human nature of forming and breaking alliances to seize power, gain hegemony, and secure benefits remains unchanged then and now. Nevertheless, we must be cautious about the Vertical and Horizontal Alliances occurring among neighboring countries concerning the situation on the Korean Peninsula.