[War & Business] Russia’s Southward Expansion and Ice-Free Ports

In December last year, a car with its surface frozen due to severe cold was loaded onto a cargo ship at the Vladivostok port. Vladivostok, Russia - TASS·Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] It is reported that the Russian military has taken control of Mariupol, a strategic port city in southern Ukraine, 53 days after the outbreak of the war, leaving most of the Black Sea coast under Russian control except for Odesa. If Russia fully controls the Donbas region, which connects the Crimean Peninsula?occupied in 2014?and the Russian mainland, it is expected to gain control over the entire Black Sea.

At the beginning of the war, Russian forces scattered across various locations including the Ukrainian capital Kyiv (Kiev) have now concentrated along the Black Sea coast and the Donbas region. It is presumed that they are expanding their defensive positions in these areas and preparing to establish puppet governments to strengthen effective control.

Accordingly, there is speculation that Russia’s initial war objective was to seize the ice-free ports along the Black Sea coast. To easily capture the Black Sea coastal cities, Russia attacked Kyiv and the northern region to divert the attention of the Ukrainian military.

This speculation stems from history, where Russia’s southward expansion policy pursued for over 300 years had the primary goal of securing ice-free ports on the Black Sea. Since the 18th century, despite possessing vast territories and resources, the Russian Empire lacked proper ports, resulting in slower economic development and delayed modernization compared to Western Europe. Without ports usable for more than three months a year, Russia found it difficult to establish trade routes with other countries and to attract foreign capital or technology.

The so-called “Great Game” in the 19th century, during which Russia competed with Britain for global supremacy, also originated from Russia’s southward expansion policy aimed at acquiring ice-free ports. From the Crimean War in 1853 to the Russo-Japanese War in 1904, Russia waged wars to open routes to ice-free ports, while Britain consistently blocked Russia’s advances.

During the 2014 invasion of the Crimean Peninsula, Russia’s main justification was that Ukraine’s demand for the withdrawal of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which was using the Sevastopol naval base, restricted the activities of its navy and endangered its security. Aside from Crimea, the only ice-free port Russia can use is Kaliningrad, an exclave located in northern Poland, but this area is surrounded by NATO countries, making military actions difficult.

The southern Ukrainian city of Kherson, which Russian forces captured first in this war, supplies electricity and water to the Crimean Peninsula. Russia self-assesses that if both Donbas and Crimea become Russian territory through this war, the security of the Black Sea Fleet will be ensured. Russia’s southward expansion policy is not merely a historical matter from centuries ago but remains an ongoing policy today.