[Global Issue+] Russia-West's New Battleground, the 'Island on Land' Kaliningrad

Finland and Sweden Face Isolation Upon NATO Membership
Birthplace of Modern Germany Sees Return Movement
Concerns Over Heightened West Conflicts if Russia Deploys Nuclear Weapons

The Russian missile defense system S-400 deployed in Kaliningrad. [Image source= Russian Ministry of Defense]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave territory isolated near the Baltic Sea, is emerging as a new battleground between Russia and the West. Russia has warned that if neighboring countries Sweden and Finland join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), it will deploy nuclear weapons there, raising concerns that this area could become the frontline of a geopolitical crisis in Europe following Ukraine.

There are concerns that if Sweden and Finland join NATO, this region will be completely isolated, surrounded on all sides by NATO countries. Moreover, this area is historically the birthplace of the German Empire, the predecessor of modern Germany, and still has a significant population of German descent. There are also movements among residents demanding its return to Germany, which could escalate into a territorial dispute.

On the 16th (local time), Gitanas Naus?da, President of Lithuania, said in an interview with the UK’s Financial Times (FT), "If Sweden and Finland join NATO, the security situation in the Baltic Sea region will improve." He added, "Russia threatens to deploy nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad if the two countries join NATO, but it is already the most militarily advanced place in Europe, and tactical nuclear weapons are believed to be stationed there. Rather than being distracted by such threats, the two countries should not waste time and join NATO quickly."

'Landlocked Island' Kaliningrad, Birthplace of Germany

The Kaliningrad region (marked in red) was occupied by Soviet forces during World War II and is recognized as an exclave territory of Russia to this day. [Image source=Google Maps]

On the map, Kaliningrad appears like an island separated from mainland Russia. Its land borders are surrounded by Poland and Lithuania, and its western region is entirely adjacent to the Baltic Sea. Historically and culturally, it has been a region distinct from Russia.

The original name of this area was "K?nigsberg," the birthplace of the Kingdom of Prussia, the predecessor state of modern Germany. Since the 13th century, when the German Teutonic Knights occupied it during the medieval period, it has belonged to the German cultural sphere. It is also famous as the birthplace of the renowned German philosopher Immanuel Kant.

However, after Soviet forces captured it during World War II in battles against Nazi Germany, it has been recognized as Russian territory ever since. The name Kaliningrad was given in 1946 to honor Mikhail Kalinin, a key Bolshevik politician and one of the founding fathers of the Soviet Union, who died that year.

Russia Sensitive to Sweden and Finland’s NATO Moves to Prevent Separatism

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

From Russia’s perspective, despite being geographically and culturally distinct, Kaliningrad is the only Russian port that does not freeze in winter, making it a region Russia is determined to defend at all costs. The Baltic Fleet, Russia’s main naval force in Europe, is stationed here, along with various advanced strategic weapons.

A significant portion of the local population reportedly demands the territory’s return to Germany or even wishes for it to become a neutral zone under United Nations administration. According to the BBC, since 2001, local residents have campaigned to change the name from Kaliningrad back to its original name, K?nigsberg, and separatist parties have been formed. However, since 2003, the Russian government has tightened regulations on forming regional parties to prevent separatist movements.

Russia’s heightened sensitivity to Sweden and Finland’s NATO accession is also believed to stem from concerns that separatist movements in Kaliningrad could intensify. If the two countries join NATO, there is a high possibility that NATO strategies will block Russian naval passage in the Baltic Sea, effectively turning Kaliningrad into a "landlocked island." If Russia’s influence weakens, the impact of separatist movements is expected to grow.

Concerns Over Escalated Conflict with the West if Nuclear Weapons Are Deployed

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

If Russia actually deploys nuclear weapons in this region, tensions with the West are expected to escalate significantly. Eastern European countries such as Poland and the three Baltic states, which border Russia, have already expressed willingness to accept increased U.S. and NATO troop deployments and even nuclear weapons.

There are concerns that, similar to the Cold War era, nuclear weapons could be deployed throughout Europe, turning Eastern Europe into a conflict zone. In such a case, border controls among European Union (EU) member states, which have so far allowed free movement of goods and people, would be reinforced again, leading to substantial increases in logistics costs.