[AKyung Poll] Seoul Mayor Hypothetical Matchup, Oh Se-hoon 51.4% vs Im Jong-seok 34.0%

Oh Se-hoon Leads Im Jong-seok by 17.4 Percentage Points Beyond Margin of Error

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Hyun-ji] In a hypothetical mayoral race between former Presidential Chief of Staff Im Jong-seok and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, Mayor Oh was found to lead former Chief Im by 17.4 percentage points.

On the 6th, Asia Economy commissioned Realmeter to conduct a public opinion poll from the 4th to 5th targeting 1,015 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Seoul (90% mobile, 10% landline, automated response). In the hypothetical one-on-one mayoral race, Mayor Oh received 51.4% support, while former Chief Im garnered 34.0%. The gap between the two candidates was 17.4 percentage points, which is outside the margin of error.

Former Chief Im showed strength among the 40s age group with 46.2% support, but trailed Mayor Oh in all other age groups. Mayor Oh’s support was particularly prominent among those aged 60 and above (62.0%).

By party support, former Chief Im led among Democratic Party supporters (66.6%), while Mayor Oh was dominant among People Power Party supporters (92.5%), as well as supporters of the People’s Party (86.7%) and independents (63.6%), indicating a strong potential for centrist expansion.

Notably, 10.2% of respondents who identified themselves as Democratic Party supporters said they would vote for Mayor Oh. Conversely, only 4.4% of those who supported the People Power Party said they would vote for former Chief Im.

The proportion of respondents supporting other candidates was 5.1%, while 9.5% were undecided or did not know (5.9% no preference, 3.6% unsure).

How the survey was conducted = This survey was commissioned by Asia Economy and conducted by Realmeter over two days, the 4th and 5th. Calls were attempted to 80,938 eligible voters aged 18 and over residing in Seoul, with a final 1,015 respondents completing the survey, resulting in a response rate of 1.3%. The survey used automated response methods with 90% mobile and 10% landline calls, employing random digit dialing sampling frames. Statistical adjustments were made using raking weighting based on gender, age group, and region according to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety’s resident registration population statistics as of the end of March 2022. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Realmeter website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.