[AKYUNG Poll] Seoul Mayor Race, Oh Se-hoon Leads... Oh 50.4% vs Song 36.6%

Oh, Leading with 42.3% in Multi-Candidate Race
Song Young-gil, Park Young-sun, Park Ju-min Follow
Also Ahead in Direct Matchup with Park Young-sun

Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon / Photo by Asia Economy

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon is shown to win both the party primary and the general election against the Democratic Party candidate in the June 1 local elections. In a multi-candidate race, more than 40% of respondents supported Mayor Oh, and he held an advantage in all hypothetical matchups against Democratic Party preliminary candidates. This is interpreted as a complex effect of expectations regarding real estate policies and internal conflicts surrounding the Democratic Party’s ‘Song Young-gil draft theory.’

On the 6th, Asia Economy commissioned Realmeter to conduct a public opinion poll from the 4th to 5th among 1,015 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Seoul (90% mobile, 10% landline, automated response). When asked to choose a preferred candidate after listing the ruling and opposition candidates mentioned as Seoul mayoral candidates in a multi-candidate race, Mayor Oh received 42.3% support, ranking first. Former Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil came in second with 14.4%. Following were former Minister of SMEs and Startups Park Young-sun with 11.9%, Democratic Party lawmaker Park Ju-min with 8.5%, former lawmaker Na Kyung-won with 5.2%, and former Presidential Secretary Im Jong-seok with 5.1% support.

In a one-on-one race against former leader Song Young-gil, who had the highest support among Democratic candidates, Mayor Oh received the choice of half of the voters. In the ‘Song Young-gil vs. Oh Se-hoon’ head-to-head, 50.4% of respondents chose Mayor Oh, while 36.7% supported former leader Song. The gap between the two candidates was 13.7 percentage points, outside the margin of error. Even if the race is set up again against former Minister Park Young-sun as in last year’s April 7 by-election, Mayor Oh’s support rate was 49.9%, surpassing former Minister Park’s 37.6%.

However, unlike the favorable public opinion toward Mayor Oh, 4 out of 10 Seoul voters (44.89%) said they support the Democratic Party. Support for the People Power Party remained at 37.8%. This is the exact opposite of the last presidential election, where Seoul voters favored People Power Party candidate Yoon Seok-youl (50.56%) over Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung (45.73%). It is interpreted as reflecting the consolidation effect of Democratic Party supporters ahead of the June local elections.

◆ How the survey was conducted = This survey was commissioned by Asia Economy and conducted by Realmeter over two days, the 4th and 5th, attempting to contact 80,938 voters aged 18 or older residing in Seoul, with a final 1,015 respondents completing the survey, yielding a response rate of 1.3%. The survey was conducted using an automated response method with 90% mobile and 10% landline calls, employing a random digit dialing method through a randomly generated sampling frame. Statistical adjustments were made using rim weighting by gender, age group, and region based on the Ministry of the Interior and Safety’s resident registration population statistics as of the end of March 2022. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Realmeter website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.