When Will the COVID-19 Pandemic End?..."New Variant Could Be Stronger Than Omicron," Experts Warn

Citizens wearing masks are walking on the streets in Tokyo, the capital of Japan. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hwang Sumi] Warnings are emerging both domestically and internationally that another COVID-19 variant could appear following Omicron.

Professor Jeong Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine predicted at the Korean Vaccine Society's online academic conference on the 25th that a new variant might become prevalent around this summer. Globally, the dominant period of a new variant typically lasts 10 to 14 weeks, and once this period ends, another variant is expected to become dominant.

Professor Jeong stated that in the third week of this month (13th to 19th), the detection rate of Stealth Omicron rose to 41.4%, and it is expected to surpass 50% next week to become the dominant strain. After circulating for up to about three months, a new variant could emerge around July.

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 situation in early 2020, five variants?Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron?have appeared at intervals of about 5 to 6 months, becoming dominant and circulating for a period in a repeating pattern. Experts explain that viral mutation is a kind of survival strategy, so the emergence of new variants can happen anytime and anywhere.

The important factors are the fatality rate and transmissibility. When a new variant appears, it may evolve to have strong transmissibility like Omicron, which replaced Delta, but with a lower severity rate. However, there are opinions that this cannot be guaranteed. The newly emerging variant may not necessarily be a relatively mild Omicron lineage.

According to recent reports such as from the UK's Daily Mail, some experts from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), which advises the UK government on COVID-19 response, believe there is a possibility that a variant similar to MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), an early coronavirus lineage, could appear. In this case, it is feared that the fatality rate could be as high as one in three infected individuals.

Andrew Rambaut, an evolutionary biologist and professor at the University of Edinburgh in the UK, also stated that the evolutionary path of the COVID-19 virus remains unclear, adding, "The next variant could be from the Delta or Alpha lineage and might possess enough immune evasion to surpass Omicron."

Experts emphasize the need to prepare for the possibility of new variants emerging from now on. This includes considering vaccine improvements, stockpiling treatments, and establishing a healthcare system to protect high-risk groups, infants, pregnant women, and dialysis patients.