Russia Reinforces Black Sea Fleet... "Large-Scale Odessa Amphibious Operation Imminent" Observed

On the 16th (local time), anti-tank obstacles called "Czech hedgehogs" were installed on the streets of Odesa, a southern port city in Ukraine, to block the Russian military invasion. The Russian forces are reported to be preparing for a large-scale attack on Odesa, Ukraine's largest logistics port and its "economic heart."

Russia is reinforcing pressure on the southern coast of Ukraine by assembling a large fleet in the Black Sea region. There are also speculations that a large-scale landing operation on Odesa, Ukraine's largest trading port, is imminent.

According to the British daily The Times on the 21st (local time), security experts estimate that the Russian naval fleet currently deployed and active in the Black Sea consists of more than 30 vessels.

Justin Crump, CEO of the UK intelligence consultancy Civilian, said, "The current Russian Black Sea Fleet is significantly larger than its usual size," adding, "Many of the latest frigates are part of it, and more than 11 landing crafts are operating near the Crimean Peninsula."

It is known that about three weeks before the outbreak of the war, a considerable number of ships from the Northern Fleet and Baltic Fleet were dispatched to the Black Sea Fleet. CEO Crump assessed, "Overall, there are more than 30 major warships, and with the addition of numerous diesel-powered submarines, the Black Sea Fleet's combat power has been greatly enhanced."

There is also analysis suggesting that the Russian Navy may conduct a large-scale landing operation on Odesa, the largest cargo port, by blockading major Ukrainian ports and deploying about ten landing crafts along the Crimean Peninsula coast.

Naval expert H. I. Sutton, who has been analyzing the movements of Russian naval vessels through satellite images, said that the Russian naval vessels gathered in the Black Sea "are focused on amphibious assault capabilities to land troops and supplies." With most major cities along the Azov Sea and Black Sea coasts under Russian control, if Odesa is also captured, Ukraine would effectively lose all maritime traffic and trade routes.

However, there is also analysis that these movements by the Russian military may be a deception operation to divert the attention of the Ukrainian forces. The UK defense and security think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) warned, "The real goal of the Russian military may be to rapidly advance the units stationed in southern Ukraine northward to encircle Ukraine's elite forces in the eastern region."

The Times quoted a U.S. Department of Defense official saying, "Russian warships shelled coastal areas around Odesa, but there have been no attacks in the past 24 hours," adding, "At present, there are no signs that a landing attempt is imminent."