Russia Holding Foreign Satellites 'Hostage'... "Let's Complete Nuri-ho Quickly" [Reading Science]

Russia Refuses to Launch OneWeb Satellites in Response to International Sanctions
Launch Schedules for Hundreds of Satellites Including 3 Korean Satellites This Year and Next Year Disrupted

On the 4th, the Russian Federal Space Agency (ROSCOSMOS) covered the Taegeukgi and other countries' flags engraved on the Soyuz rocket. Photo by ROSCOSMOS.

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] The international space development cooperation system is being shaken due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia is using international sanctions as an excuse to refuse the launch of satellites from other countries that have already been contracted, effectively taking them 'hostage.' Dozens of satellites from several countries, including South Korea, which were scheduled to be launched using Russian space launch vehicles within this year, are currently grounded. There are growing calls for South Korea to expedite the completion of its own launch vehicle for independent space development.

According to space specialist media SpaceNews and the international academic journal Nature on the 15th, the international space development cooperation system has been shaken since Russia invaded Ukraine on the 24th of last month. Russia had played an important role in personnel and cargo transportation and management after constructing the International Space Station (ISS) together with 14 countries including the United States. In particular, Russia held a high market share in the international satellite launch vehicle market by using reliable launch vehicles such as Soyuz and Angara.

However, after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last month, it threatened to suspend cooperation with various countries in response to international sanctions, disrupting the system. The biggest problem lies with countries that have entrusted satellite launches to Russia this year or next year. Especially troubled is the British satellite internet startup OneWeb. This company was scheduled to launch 36 satellite internet satellites aboard a Soyuz rocket from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on the 4th, but the launch was suddenly canceled. The Russian Federal Space Agency (ROSCOSMOS) imposed conditions on the UK government to sell its shares in OneWeb and not to use the satellites for military purposes after international sanctions were imposed following the Ukraine invasion, but after being rejected, on the 2nd it announced its refusal to launch OneWeb satellites. OneWeb had launched 428 satellites using Russian launch vehicles up to last year and planned to launch an additional 220 satellites this year to start a pilot service. Due to Russia's refusal to launch, these plans are inevitably disrupted. On the 3rd, OneWeb officially announced the cancellation of all satellite launch plans using Russian launch vehicles and is considering alternatives such as the US's SpaceX, the European Space Agency's (ESA) Ariane rocket, or Indian or Japanese launch vehicles.

The European Union (EU) is also heavily affected. Four Galileo satellite navigation system satellites, the Sentinel-1C radar observation satellite, the Euclid space telescope, and the Earth observation satellite EarthCARE, all contracted to be launched on Russian Soyuz rockets from the French Guiana Space Centre this year and next, are effectively canceled.

South Korea is also included in the list of expected affected countries. South Korea plans to launch the next-generation medium satellite 2 (CAS5002) into orbit aboard the Soyuz 2-1A launch vehicle in the second half of this year, but delays have become inevitable. Relatedly, Dmitry Rogozin, head of the Russian Federal Space Agency, released a video on the 4th showing paper being placed over foreign flags, including the South Korean Taegeukgi, painted on the exterior of the Soyuz rocket. Additionally, the schedule for the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute's space weather observation satellite SNIPE and the multipurpose medium satellite Arirang 6, both planned to be launched using Russian Soyuz or Angara launch vehicles within this year, is inevitably disrupted. Furthermore, launches of one Swedish atmospheric observation satellite, five satellites from Japanese private satellite companies Axelspace and Synspective, and one weather satellite from the European private satellite company Eumetsat, all contracted with Russian launch vehicles for this year through 2024, are also affected.

On the 8th, Russia announced its intention to proceed with the scheduled launches this year but to replace satellites from Western countries such as OneWeb with satellites from Russian companies, which it would launch into orbit free of charge. Director Rogozin stated, "By the end of the year, about ten Russian private communication, weather, Earth observation, and precision surveillance satellites are scheduled to be launched, and the Soyuz rockets planned for launch will be used for these instead of OneWeb satellites."

However, Russia's sudden withdrawal from the launch vehicle market is expected to cause a significant shock. China has already been excluded due to US sanctions, and Europe, India, and Japan are struggling with their own launches alone. Although the US company SpaceX, which possesses reusable rockets, is the only alternative, its launch schedule is fully booked for the next year and a half. Preparing a launch vehicle for satellite launches takes at least one and a half to two years. For countries worldwide that were about to launch satellites, finding alternatives is difficult.

The International Space Station (ISS) is still operating normally but its future is uncertain. On the 12th (local time), Rogozin warned of the ISS's potential crash in response to Western sanctions. He said on social media, "The Russian segment of the ISS could be affected, and 500 tons of structure could fall into the sea or land," adding, "The Russian segment adjusts the ISS orbit about 11 times a year to avoid space debris. The crash site will not be in Russia." At the end of last month, he also warned, "Will the cooperative relationship on the ISS be destroyed? New US sanctions could result in the space station uncontrollably crashing to Earth."

The ISS is typically staffed by four Americans, two Russians, and one European astronaut and is currently maintaining normal operations. The US has imposed various sanctions since Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014 but has maintained cooperation related to the ISS. Regarding this, Nature reported on the 14th (local time) that "NASA states that ISS operations and research are still proceeding normally, and astronauts are not publicly discussing the Ukraine war inside the ISS."

One American astronaut scheduled to return on the 30th is expected to board the Soyuz rocket with two Russian astronauts and return to Earth as planned. Joel Montalbano, NASA's International Space Station Program Manager, said, "It is certain that the American astronaut will return aboard Soyuz," adding, "We are communicating with the Russian side, and there is no confusion regarding this matter."

Russia has also announced that it will no longer supply its rocket engines to US companies such as ULA and Northrop Grumman. ULA, a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, supplies rocket technology to NASA and the Department of Defense, while Northrop Grumman provides cargo transport rockets to the ISS.

Meanwhile, domestically, voices are growing to accelerate the completion and further development of the Korean-made launch vehicle 'Nuriho,' which is scheduled for its second test launch on June 15, to establish an independent space development system early. Nuriho is currently designed to place satellites weighing 1.5 tons into low Earth orbit. During the second launch, a test satellite will be loaded to test the satellite orbit insertion capability. If successful, it plans to transport the next-generation medium satellite 3 in 2023. However, to use an independent launch vehicle for the lunar landing probe launch planned for 2030, work to equip stronger propulsion and payload capacity must be completed. Even the top-tier Korean satellite, Cheollian, weighs over 3 tons, making it impossible to launch with Nuriho's current performance.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

An official from the domestic space industry said, "For us, the best path is to launch the manufactured satellites according to the existing schedule, but the situation is somewhat difficult," adding, "We are carefully monitoring international sanctions and the war situation and preparing response measures."