Deadly Virus and Greenhouse Gases... Threats to the Arctic Permafrost [Reading Science]

US NASA, European ESA, and Satellite Observations Begin Full-Scale Research

Photo by NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration)

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] The Arctic permafrost is melting due to global warming. It is anticipated that within the next few decades, greenhouse gases or infectious viruses buried in the permafrost could be released, posing a significant crisis to humanity. Accordingly, the United States and the European Union (EU) are conducting detailed surveys using exploration satellites to assess the situation and devise countermeasures.

According to NASA on the 10th, the Earth's permafrost, including that in the Arctic, contains an immeasurable amount of greenhouse gases such as methane and carbon dioxide, as well as ancient infectious viruses and high-risk chemical substances like DDT, a pesticide known for its strong toxicity.

The problem is that as the permafrost melts due to recent global warming, these greenhouse gases, viruses, and chemicals are increasingly likely to spread into the atmosphere or harm humans. A paper published in January in the international academic journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment by a research team from the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory explains this risk well. The Arctic permafrost stores about 1.7 trillion cubic meters of carbon, which is 51 times the amount of carbon emitted from fossil fuels used worldwide in 2019 alone. The research team predicts that as the permafrost melts due to global warming, enormous amounts of carbon dioxide and methane gas will be released into the Earth's atmosphere within the next 100 years. They particularly analyzed that the rate of carbon release into the atmosphere is accelerating due to permafrost thawing and the resulting ground fissures. Numerous plants are frozen and buried in the permafrost, and as temperatures rise and they decompose, methane and carbon dioxide are emitted. Kimberly Miner, a climate scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said, "If current predictions hold, we will see these carbon emissions into the atmosphere within the next 100 years," adding, "The worst-case scenario is a rapid release within 20 years, though it could also proceed gradually."

If such large-scale carbon emissions actually occur, it could accelerate warming in the Arctic and have a tremendous impact on global climate change. This is because the Arctic plays a role in storing and circulating cold air, stabilizing the climate in other regions.

There are already studies showing severe physical damage. A research team from the University of Oulu in Finland analyzed that permafrost erosion is causing ground subsidence, leading to ruptured water pipes and unstable residential areas. In one Russian city, 80% of buildings have been damaged by permafrost erosion. It is projected that by the end of this century, costs for repairing and restoring various facilities will increase to hundreds of billions of dollars. Previously, the cause of an oil spill accident in Norilsk, a city in the Russian Arctic, was the collapse of a fossil fuel power plant due to permafrost erosion.

Additionally, researchers from Wageningen University in the Netherlands pointed out that the vegetation of the tundra located in the Arctic Circle is rapidly changing as it adapts to the climate crisis. A research team from the University of Alaska Fairbanks predicted that global warming will cause lake water to evaporate, leading to dryness. There are also concerns about infectious viruses remaining in animal and human corpses buried in the permafrost being exposed and spreading due to thawing. In fact, in 2016, anthrax bacteria spread from a reindeer carcass found in the permafrost, resulting in one death and dozens of infections.

Accordingly, scientists are conducting research by observing the thawing status of the permafrost through various methods such as ground observations and aerial and satellite photography. In particular, studies are underway to measure the amount of carbon emitted from the surface of various Arctic regions using satellites. The European Space Agency (ESA) is monitoring surface changes, soil composition, and water quality by capturing hyperspectral images through the Copernicus satellites. NASA is deploying Earth observation satellites to measure data such as plant distribution and vegetation status in the Arctic, surface changes like landslides and volcanic eruptions, snow and glacier conditions, and infrared reflectance.

Miner, the NASA climate scientist, said, "All scientists are making every effort to find out what is happening in the Arctic," adding, "The more we understand and grasp the reality, the better we can prepare for the future."