[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] Although the level of sanctions imposed by the United States and other Western countries against Russia is increasing, there are repeated criticisms that these sanctions are insufficient to stop Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia. It is explained that past Western economic sanctions targeting Iran, Venezuela, and others ultimately did not change the behavior of dictators.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 3rd (local time) in an article titled "Will sanctions force President Putin to withdraw from Ukraine? History shows that is unlikely," stating, "Even with strong sanctions, the likelihood of Russia stopping the war is low." Recent economic sanctions may damage the Russian economy and increase the cost of the invasion of Ukraine, but it is difficult for them to lead to Russia's withdrawal.
WSJ cited experts saying that such sanctions especially fail to bring about behavioral changes in authoritarian countries like Russia. North Korea did not give up its nuclear weapons despite sanctions from the United States and the United Nations. Sanctions by the United States and European countries against Libya lasted for about 20 years from the early 1980s but were also ineffective. Muammar Gaddafi maintained power for nearly 10 more years before being ousted by the "Arab Spring" revolution. The United States' 60-year trade embargo against Cuba also failed to overthrow the Cuban regime.
Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago who has reviewed decades of sanctions since World War II, stated that if the goal is regime change or reversing military actions against other countries, the effectiveness of sanctions without military threats or actions is only about 5% of the time.
Moreover, past U.S. sanctions against Iran included expulsion from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), central bank sanctions, and energy sanctions, which have not been applied to Russia currently. However, although Iran's economy was hit, it did not collapse.
Besides WSJ, major foreign media also pointed out these aspects, analyzing that "Russia's isolation is evident under current sanctions, but Russia still has a trade surplus in the energy sector."
Danny Glaser of K2 Integrity, a former U.S. Treasury official, analyzed, "Western sanctions will not change Putin's military objectives," adding, "The key is how much pain Russia is willing to endure." Clemens Grafe, an economist at Goldman Sachs, evaluated, "If Russia continues to earn money through oil and gas sales, the immediate crisis caused by sanctions will disappear within 6 to 9 months."
Earlier, there were analyses that sanctions against Russia would bring Russia and China closer, as seen in cases like Venezuela. Recently, China's purchase of Iranian crude oil is also reaching record levels. Consulting firm Teneo pointed out that "if sanctions are prolonged, they could shake President Putin's position," but also warned that Russia's backlash could intensify, causing counterproductive effects.
However, major foreign media noted that Russia's economy is larger than those of Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea. There has been almost no historical precedent for sanctions against a great power ranked 12th in the world. The intensity of sanctions and the number of participating countries are also incomparable to the past. Although sanctions alone cannot reverse the invasion of Ukraine, there is an analysis that they can cut off Russia's future expansion of regional influence.
Meanwhile, on the same day, the United States imposed additional sanctions targeting Russian oligarchs and their families. Billionaire Alisher Usmanov and Dmitry Peskov, President Vladimir Putin's spokesperson, were included on the list. Their assets in the United States will be frozen and blocked from the financial system.
This is a measure to increase pressure by cutting off the "funding sources" of oligarchs close to President Putin who are believed to have supported the war funds. It appears to also aim at causing divisions within the support base.
The White House stated that it will cooperate with governments worldwide to identify and freeze illicit profits such as yachts, luxury apartments, and assets owned by these individuals. Germany seized a luxury yacht worth about $600 million owned by Usmanov in Hamburg, and the United Kingdom also publicly announced sanctions such as asset freezes targeting Usmanov and others.
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
