Energy Powerhouse Russia Faces Manufacturing Powerhouse China with the US... "More Difficult than During the First Cold War" (Comprehensive)

Risk of Being Caught in a Two-Front War in Asia and Europe for the US
If Ukraine Fails to Defend, All of Eastern Europe Faces Threat from Russia

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] International relations experts are expressing concerns that the security environment in the new Cold War era is far more challenging than during the first Cold War period in the 1950s. This is because the national power of Russia and China, which the United States must contend with, has grown to an extent incomparable to that time. As Russia and China have emerged as resource-rich and manufacturing powerhouses that dominate the global economy, security management is expected to be impossible through simple arms races and ideological competition like in the first Cold War.

In particular, the United States, which has been reducing its military presence in the Middle East and Europe while strengthening forces in the Indo-Pacific region to counter China, is now assessed to be facing a situation where it must prepare for a two-front war. However, there are concerns that the Joe Biden administration, burdened with immediate challenges such as economic issues caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and political division, will find it difficult to maintain two fronts simultaneously?something not experienced since World War II.

According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 23rd (local time), the U.S. Department of Defense has already issued warnings that the U.S. military could find itself fighting on two fronts simultaneously in Europe and Asia. WSJ reported, "A 2018 Department of Defense strategic research report warned that if the U.S. were to fight on two or more fronts simultaneously, there is a risk of being overwhelmed by adversaries," adding, "Kathleen Hicks, Deputy Secretary of Defense who participated in the study, is currently leading the response planning."

The scenario most feared by the U.S. and Western countries is China launching a simultaneous attack on the Taiwan Strait while Russia invades Ukraine. Earlier, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson emphasized during his speech at the Munich Security Conference on the 19th that "if Ukraine is in crisis, the shock will echo worldwide," and "that echo could be heard in East Asia, especially Taiwan."

China, aware of the attention from the U.S. and the West, has denied the possibility of invading Taiwan as mere speculation. On the 23rd, Ma Xiaoguang, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of China, strongly rebutted at a press conference, stating, "The Democratic Progressive Party authorities and Western public opinion are colluding to maliciously exploit the Ukraine issue to fabricate a Chinese military threat theory, internationalize the Taiwan issue, and incite anti-China sentiment within Taiwan."

Warnings have also been raised that if the U.S., caught in a two-front war, fails to defend Ukraine, the security of the entire European continent could face even greater risks. The Washington Post (WP) reported, "If Russia takes control of all of Ukraine or establishes a pro-Russian regime like Belarus as a satellite state, neighboring countries such as Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova will all share borders with Russia, threatening their security," adding, "Especially Moldova, where pro-Russian rebel forces exist in the Transnistria region on the eastern border, similar to the Donbas region in Ukraine, could face the risk of the entire country being annexed by Russia." It further warned, "If Russia controls Ukraine, a country with a population of 44 million, rich in various strategic resources and home to major space bases and weapons production facilities from the Soviet era, it will pose an even greater threat."

Concerns are also emerging that it will be difficult to control Russia with current simple economic sanctions amid soaring prices of major strategic resources due to high oil prices and supply chain issues. According to the World Bank (WB), Russia's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) last year was $1.483 trillion (approximately 1776 trillion won), ranking 11th in the world, and 6th in the world by purchasing power parity.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), about 30% of the world's major mineral resources are located in Russian territory, with particularly high production shares of key strategic resources such as 49% of global nickel, 42% of palladium, and 26% of aluminum. This is why there are concerns that even if Russia is excluded from dollar settlements and the international financial messaging system (SWIFT), the sanctions' effects may not be significant.