[Asia Economy Reporter Seoyoung Kwon] A study has revealed that in the case of the COVID-19 Omicron variant, if an infected person and another individual converse within 50 cm without wearing masks, infection is almost inevitable.
On the 3rd, Yomiuri Shimbun and Asahi Shimbun reported that a research team from Japan's RIKEN and Kobe University announced simulation results estimating the infection risk of the Omicron and Delta variants using the supercomputer 'Fugaku.' The team assumed that the Omicron variant has 1.5 times the infectivity of the Delta variant and calculated the amount of virus penetrating the body under various conditions such as mask usage, conversation duration, and distance from the infected person.
As a result, when conversing indoors with an infected person wearing a mask at a distance of more than 1 meter for 15 minutes, the infection probability was almost zero. However, when the distance was reduced to 50 cm, the infection probability rose to about 10%. Assuming a crowded train scenario where the distance narrows to 25 cm, the infection probability increased to 30%. If conversing with an infected person not wearing a mask, the probability of infection for someone 1 meter away for 15 minutes was measured at 60%, and when the distance was within 50 cm, it soared to nearly 100%.
Starting from the Lunar New Year holiday, COVID-19 cases have surged rapidly. On the 3rd, citizens wearing masks are heading to work after the holiday at Sindorim Station in Guro-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@
The research team also evaluated the infection risk inside a small restaurant with tables and counters. The results showed that if there was one Omicron-infected person among 16 customers and the ventilation system was functioning properly, on average only one additional person would be infected over one hour. Furthermore, operating kitchen ventilation and air conditioning reduced the infection risk by half, and installing acrylic partitions between seats decreased it to one-third.
Additionally, the team considered scenarios such as conversations with neighbors at large-scale events like concert halls. If talking for one hour, even if the infected person wore a mask, the probability of the person next to them becoming infected reached 40%. Regarding these findings, Professor Makoto Tsubokura of Kobe University stated, "This confirms that mask-wearing and ventilation are paramount in preventing COVID-19," and added, "It is important to implement measures tailored to individual situations based on such analyses."
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
