"TV Debate Ratings at 30% Indicate a Tight Presidential Election Within 5 Percentage Points Between 1st and 2nd Place"
On the 3rd, at the KBS studio in Seoul where the presidential candidate debate jointly hosted by the three terrestrial broadcasters was held, Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, Yoon Seok-youl of the People Power Party, and Ahn Cheol-soo of the People Party (from left) are taking a commemorative photo before the debate. [Image source=Yonhap News]
[Asia Economy Reporter Yoon Seul-gi] Lee Taek-soo, CEO of the public opinion research firm Realmeter, mentioned the viewership ratings of the first presidential candidate debate held yesterday (the 3rd) and predicted that "there is a possibility of a close race within 5 percentage points."
On the morning of the 4th, Lee posted on his Facebook, stating, "According to the viewership rating company Nielsen Korea, the TV debate held yesterday as a preliminary contest recorded a 39% viewership rating. This is the second highest rating among TV debates held since 1997."
Lee referred to the historical presidential TV debate viewership ratings as follows: ▲1997 55.7% (1st) ▲2002 33.8% (4th) ▲2007 24.0% (5th) ▲2012 34.9% (3rd) ▲2017 22.1% (6th) ▲2022 39.0% (2nd), explaining, "Until the last presidential election, when the viewership rating exceeded 30%, the race between the first and second place candidates was close within 5 percentage points; when it was in the 20% range, the gap was large."
He added, "When the ratings were in the 20% range, voter turnout was also low, and voters from the losing camp lost interest in the election itself, showing indifference to both the debate and voting. In 2007, it was the Democratic Party supporters, and in 2017, it was the People Power Party supporters who behaved this way, and candidates Jeong Dong-young and Hong Joon-pyo lost by a large margin," he said.
Finally, Lee predicted, "With yesterday's viewership rating, the possibility of a close race in this presidential election has increased, meaning a contest within or around 5 percentage points. It seems that the 'field plowing' and 'tree planting' will be fiercely contested until the end."
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