[Square] Expanding Future-Oriented Cooperation Between the Middle East and the Post-Petroleum Era

Hyundo Park, Research Professor at Sogang University Euromena Research Institute

"We have natural gas that can last us for nearly 100 years." This is what U.S. President Obama said in his 2012 State of the Union address regarding the shale energy revolution. Since 1998, the United States has been using hydraulic fracturing to crack sedimentary shale rock and extract gas and oil. By 2011, it surpassed Russia to become the world's largest gas producer, and by 2018, it overtook Saudi Arabia to become the world's largest crude oil producer.

In 2000, the U.S. imported 2.4 million barrels of Middle Eastern crude oil per day, but by 2020, that number had dropped to just 700,000 barrels. This fulfilled the dream of energy self-sufficiency that was sparked during the 1973 oil crisis. This is why the U.S. is gradually withdrawing from the Middle East while promoting its "Asia Pivot" policy.

In 2002, Saudi Arabia proposed the "Arab Peace Initiative," which promised normalization of relations between Arab League member states and Israel if Israel agreed to the establishment of a Palestinian state. However, Israel rejected this. Yet in 2020, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain signed the Abraham Accords with Israel, normalizing diplomatic relations. Sudan and Morocco followed suit. This created an atmosphere of Arab-Israeli d?tente without resolving the Palestinian issue, which had been a prerequisite for Arab-Israeli neighborly relations. In response to the U.S. declaring a reduced role in the Middle East and gradually withdrawing to focus on its Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China, Arab states and Israel took the first step away from insular nationalism toward building a strategic alliance.

The Middle East is changing. In a global reality where the U.S. is no longer as dominant as before, U.S.-China conflicts and competition are intensifying, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution is sweeping across the world, oil-producing countries in the Middle East are striving to strengthen security and restructure their resource-centered industries to pursue industrial diversification. Against this backdrop of massive change, it is highly meaningful that President Moon Jae-in will visit the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt sequentially from the 15th to the 22nd for six nights and eight days to discuss future-oriented cooperation with the leaders of these countries. We warmly welcome this visit, which understands and seeks to implement the era's demand to build friendly ties with Middle Eastern countries and wisely respond to the international political and economic order amid the emergence of a new order.

The UAE is a small but strong country full of future vision. It does not fear change but rather leads it. The Expo currently being held in the UAE, the Middle East hub of the Korean Wave, has visitors deeply captivated by the charm of the Korean Pavilion. Saudi Arabia, which played a significant role in the miracle on the Han River through the Korean construction market in the 1970s, is transforming into a moderate and inclusive open country reflecting the enterprising spirit of its young generation. It is revitalizing its tourism industry and promoting the futuristic city "NEOM," which integrates cutting-edge technology. Egypt is refining its economic strength to revive its past glory as a leader in the Middle East. Discussing future growth engines and strengthening friendship with these three countries is a delightful prospect.

Summit diplomacy is the best diplomatic stage where two countries can most easily resolve mutual needs. In 1945, on the USS Quincy in the Red Sea, Roosevelt met the King of Saudi Arabia, winning the king’s heart by making eye contact, showing consideration, and empathizing. This marked the beginning of a long history of friendship and goodwill between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. We hope President Moon will open wide the path of prosperity walking together with Middle Eastern countries toward a post-oil era through empathetic summit diplomacy.

Park Hyun-do, Research Professor, Euro-MENA Research Institute, Sogang University