Rising Trend of Ahn Cheol-soo Amid 'Unpopular Presidential Election'... 'Candidate Unification' Emerges as a Presidential Variable

'Approval Rating 10%' Rising Ahn Cheol-soo
Polls Show 'More Support for Ahn than Yoon' if Unified
Ahn "Will Complete Presidential Race," Dismisses Unity Possibility

Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the People’s Party. Photo by Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Juhee] The presidential race, which had been dominated by the two leading candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-youl, is now shaking up due to the rising approval ratings of Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the People’s Party. Just a month ago, Ahn’s support hovered around the 5% range, but recent polls show it climbing to around 10%. As Ahn’s presence grows, the issue of 'candidate unification' is emerging as a decisive factor in this presidential race.

Ahn’s approval ratings have shown a clear upward trend in various opinion polls. In a survey conducted by Embrain Public on behalf of JoongAng Ilbo from December 30 to 31, targeting 1,010 adults nationwide aged 18 and over, Ahn recorded a double-digit support rate of 10.1%. He ranked third after Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate (39.4%), and Yoon Seok-youl, the People Power Party presidential candidate (29.9%).

There is also a survey result indicating that, assuming opposition unification, more respondents think it is more appropriate to unify behind Ahn rather than Yoon. According to a poll conducted by Global Research on behalf of JTBC from January 1 to 2, targeting 1,012 people nationwide, 41.1% of respondents chose Ahn as the more suitable candidate for unification, while 30.6% chose Yoon, showing a gap of 10.5 percentage points between the two.

The main reason for Ahn’s rising support is widely analyzed as a reflection of voters’ disenchantment with the 'unpleasant presidential election' marked by moral and qualification controversies surrounding the major party candidates, leading them to turn their attention to a 'third zone' candidate and thus benefiting Ahn. In particular, Yoon’s repeated gaffes and internal conflicts within the People Power Party’s election committee appear to have contributed to his declining support.

Ahn Cheol-soo, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, is delivering a greeting at the 1st Startup Future Forest Forum titled "Crisis in Universities, Meeting the Sharing Economy," held on the morning of the 13th of last month at the National Assembly Members' Office Building. / Photo by the National Assembly Press Corps [Image source=Yonhap News]

As Ahn’s approval ratings continue to rise, the political sphere is gradually discussing the necessity of unification with Yoon. Although the People Power Party has not yet stated a concrete position on unification, if Yoon’s support continues to decline while Ahn’s rises, the card of opposition candidate unification will likely become inevitable for regime change.

Ahn has stated that he intends to complete the presidential race without unification. At a policy press conference held at the National Assembly on January 2, he said, “I am not considering (unification). I want to win and become the eldest brother of a new era who leads this era forward by bringing about regime change.”

He added, “Because there are many doubts about the moral issues, family issues, and governance capabilities or qualifications of the major party candidates, there is an unprecedentedly large number of undecided voters with about 60 days left until the election. Even among those who have chosen a candidate, many can change their minds at any time. I plan to spend the entire month of January explaining to these people that I am qualified in terms of morality and capability.”

On January 3, Kwon Eun-hee, floor leader of the People’s Party, expressed confidence in an interview with CBS Radio’s 'Kim Hyun-jung’s News Show,' saying, “The golden cross where Ahn surpasses Yoon will happen in January, and before Lunar New Year, a two-way contest between Ahn and another candidate will be formed.”

However, there is also a forecast that if the election proceeds without unification, opposition votes will be split, increasing the possibility of failure in regime change, so opinions will eventually converge toward unification.

Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University’s Department of Political Science and Diplomacy analyzed, “Ahn’s rising support is attributed to the so-called 'unpleasant presidential election,' where the major party candidates have repeatedly failed to meet expectations. He has a clean image in terms of morality and gives the impression that he can govern well.” He added, “However, since his party has few seats, there are concerns that even if Ahn becomes president, he will not be able to exert much influence. To overcome this, unification of opposition candidates is practically essential.”

He continued, “In the 2017 presidential election, the opposition candidates (Hong Joon-pyo, Yoo Seung-min, Ahn Cheol-soo) all ran, splitting the vote and leading to defeat by Moon Jae-in. To avoid repeating that scenario, I think the candidates will eventually settle on unification.”