Population of South Korea at 38 Million in 2070... First Population Decline This Year

Statistics Korea Future Population Projection
Working-Age Population to Decrease from 37.28 Million Last Year to 17.37 Million in 2070, Less Than Half

[Sejong=Asia Economy Reporter Son Sunhee] It is projected that South Korea's population will gradually decline starting this year, reaching approximately 38 million by 2070. This is similar to the population size in 1979.

According to the 'Future Population Projections (2020?2070)' released by Statistics Korea on the 9th, South Korea's total population is expected to decrease by about 60,000 people annually on average over the next decade from 51.84 million in 2020. Accordingly, the population is expected to be around 51.2 million in 2030 and drop to 37.66 million by 2070.

The population growth rate is forecasted to be around -0.1% from 2021 to 2035, then accelerate in decline to approximately -1.24% by 2070.

Statistics Korea had previously projected in 2019 that the population peak would occur in 2028 at 51.94 million, but this peak has been brought forward by eight years in just three years.

The population projection reflects the results of the 2020 Population Census (registered census) and recent trends in population change factors (births, deaths, international migration), assuming future population change factors to forecast the population over the next 50 years (2020?2070). It is a concept combining the natural increase or decrease within the country (births minus deaths) and the trends of foreign residents living in the country, such as students and overseas workers.

The scale of 'natural population decrease,' which is the number of deaths exceeding births, is expected to steadily widen from -30,000 in 2020 to -100,000 in 2030 and -510,000 by 2070.

In particular, the decline in the working-age population between 15 and 64 years old is more severe. The working-age population is expected to shrink from 37.28 million in 2020 to 17.37 million in 2070. In terms of proportion, it will decrease from 72.1% to 46.1%.

The elderly population, which was 8.15 million in 2020, is projected by Statistics Korea to surpass 10 million in 2024 and increase to 17.47 million by 2070.

Kim Sooyoung, head of the Population Trends Division at Statistics Korea, said, "With fertility rates and the number of births expected to decline further over the next three to four years, the decrease in the youth and working-age populations has expanded more than previously anticipated," adding, "Aging is expected to progress at the fastest rate in the world, consistent with existing trends."