Next Presidential Candidate Support, Yoon Seok-yeol 45.3% · Lee Jae-myung 37.1% [Realmeter]

In the Quantum Virtual Matchup, the Gap Between Two Candidates Narrows for 4 Consecutive Weeks... From 13.0% Points to 4.9% Points
'Regime Change' 51.3% vs 'Regime Continuation' 40.3%

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] Yoon Seok-yeol, the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, has been shown to lead Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, beyond the margin of error in the next presidential candidate preference poll.

In the next presidential candidate preference poll conducted and announced by Realmeter on the 8th at the request of YTN (targeting 1,036 people aged 18 and over nationwide from December 6 to 7, with a sampling error of ±3.0 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), Candidate Yoon recorded 45.3%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous survey (November 26-27), while Candidate Lee rose 2.0 percentage points to 37.1%. During the same period, the gap between the two candidates' support rates narrowed from 8.6 percentage points to 8.2 percentage points, but Candidate Yoon still led beyond the margin of error.

Sim Sang-jung, the Justice Party candidate who proposed a "third zone coalition," slightly increased from 3.0% to 4.0%, while Ahn Cheol-soo, the People's Party candidate, dropped from 4.3% to 2.5%. Former Prime Minister Kim Dong-yeon recorded 1.6%, with other figures at 2.2%, none at 4.4%, and unsure at 2.7%.

In the hypothetical one-on-one matchups, the gap between Candidate Yoon and Candidate Lee has been narrowing for four consecutive weeks. Candidate Yoon showed a declining trend from 50% in the first survey (November 8-9) to 48.9% (November 22-23), 48.6% (November 26-27), and 46.9% (December 6-7), while Candidate Lee increased from 37.0% to 39.3%, 39.7%, and 42.0%, respectively, narrowing the gap. As a result, the support rate gap narrowed from 13.0 percentage points a month ago to 4.9 percentage points, entering the margin of error range.

Candidate Yoon received majority support in all regions except Incheon·Gyeonggi, Busan·Ulsan·Gyeongnam, and the Honam region, while Candidate Lee received overwhelmingly high support in the Honam region (69.6%), showing a contrast. By age group, Candidate Lee led in their 40s (50.6%) and 50s (52.3%), while Candidate Yoon was dominant among those aged 60 and over (60.5%). In their 20s and 30s, the support rate difference between the two candidates was within the margin of error, showing a close race.

Regarding the next year's presidential election, 51.3% of respondents hoped for a "regime change," which was higher than the 40.3% who hoped for "regime continuation." Regarding Candidate Lee's repeated apology over the controversy surrounding former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk, 46.6% responded that it was appropriate, while 42.1% said it was inappropriate. Regarding the opposition party's Kim Jong-in joining as the general election campaign headquarters chief, 53.2% believed it helped increase Candidate Yoon's support rate, while 37.9% said it did not help.

For more details, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission.