Russian Foreign Policy Expert: "If Ukraine Joins NATO, Russian Invasion Will Begin"

"NATO's East European Expansion Increases Risk of Conflict with Russia"
Concerns Grow Over Possible Invasion Early Next Year... Russia Denies Invasion Possibility

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] A diagnosis by a Russian foreign policy expert suggesting that Russia might invade Ukraine if Ukraine joins the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has sparked controversy. As Russia deploys large-scale troops near the border with Ukraine, raising the possibility of an invasion, military tensions are escalating across Eastern Europe.

On the 24th (local time), Fyodor Lukyanov, a Russian foreign policy expert, wrote in an article for the British daily The Telegraph, "If there is no firm guarantee from NATO that Ukraine's membership will not be allowed, there is a possibility that Russia will invade Ukraine," emphasizing, "Moscow wants more than just words from NATO."

Lukyanov, who is also the chairman of the Foreign and Defense Policy Council, an association of Russian political analysts, pointed out that NATO's expansion in Eastern Europe inevitably leads to conflict with Russia. He stated, "Just as the former Soviet Union recognized Finland's independence on the condition of neutrality after World War II, Russia must draw a new red line," and predicted, "The recent rise in tensions in Eastern Europe shows that old security principles no longer work, and if NATO seeks to expand further eastward, it will create new conflicts."

He also warned, "The gamble by Georgia, which accused Russia of military provocations and attacked Russia in 2008, could happen again in Ukraine." As Russia recently concentrates troops near the Ukrainian border, analyses suggesting a possible invasion of Ukraine early next year have emerged, heightening military tensions in the border area between the two countries.