[The Editors' Verdict] Will COP26 for Carbon Neutrality End as Just a Talk Fest?

The 26th United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) is being held in the United Kingdom until the 12th. The UN Conference of the Parties, first held in Germany in 1995, is the world's largest meeting for addressing climate change. The conference aims to present each country's carbon emission reduction targets for 2030 to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, derive cooperation measures to protect the global community from climate change, and negotiate concrete plans for developed countries to raise annual funds of 120 trillion won. Another key point of the conference is to establish institutional mechanisms to ensure the implementation of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Representatives from over 100 countries, including South Korea's President Moon Jae-in, participated in the conference. With about 30,000 participants from 200 countries, including NGOs, industry representatives, and various organizations, it can truly be called the world's largest conference. However, as the saying goes, "Too many cooks spoil the broth," the conference ended up being just a talk fest.

Notably, Xi Jinping, the leader of China?the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter?did not attend, nor did Vladimir Putin, president of Russia, the fourth-largest emitter and the world's largest natural gas holder. It seems unlikely to expect concrete cooperation from China and Russia. At the G20 meeting held prior to the conference, it was agreed to stop financial support for other countries' coal-fired power plants, but no deadline was set for phasing out domestic coal-fired power plants. The only achievement was the G20 leaders' agreement on the importance of temperature limits set by the Paris Climate Agreement, which is a modest outcome for a summit of advanced countries ahead of the climate change conference.

Carbon neutrality on the international stage is a battle of optics and practical interests. South Korea, which ranks in the lower 30% of cumulative emissions among G20 countries, has no reason to roll up its sleeves for carbon neutrality. Since there are many ways to reach Seoul, there is no reason to hesitate in this battle of optics.

The conference's main focus is to finalize the implementation rules of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. Known as the "rulebook," these rules are follow-up measures to the agreement. They include carbon market rules, transparency in agreement implementation, carbon emission reduction schedules, climate change response measures and disaster support, fund creation and financial support for developing countries to reduce greenhouse gases, and other party actions to ensure the agreement's success. Although implementation rules have been important agenda items at every Conference of the Parties, if the conference can at least agree on carbon market rules, the Paris Agreement can be considered to be enforced with binding power.

The carbon market is similar to the emissions trading system agreed upon at the 1997 Kyoto Conference. This system is based on setting carbon emission limits for each country. Countries that emit more than their limits must buy emission rights from countries that have reduced emissions within their limits. The system failed because fair emission limits were not established. The focus is on whether countries will agree on carbon market rules that set national carbon emission reduction targets as emission limits and allow trading of emission rights. However, the absence of China, the largest carbon emitter, and Russia, the largest natural gas holder, darkens the outlook for the conference. Even at the G20 meeting held last month as a prelude to the Conference of the Parties, countries could not agree on the timing of coal phase-out due to differing positions. Although five years have passed since the agreement was signed, establishing an international implementation system remains distant. This conference also seems unlikely to satisfy Greta Thunberg, who shouted "Don't steal my dreams" at the UN climate meeting two years ago.

Jung Dong-wook, Professor, Department of Energy Systems Engineering, Chung-Ang University