Record High Voter Turnout in People Power Party Primary, Who Benefits?

High Voter Turnout Leads to Busy Vote Counting
Party Member Vote Favors Yoon Seok-yeol, Polls Favor Hong Joon-pyo
Lee Taek-soo: "People Power Party's Party Sentiment Between Supporters and Public Opinion"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] As the People Power Party's presidential primary election, conducted through mobile voting, records an unprecedented turnout, conflicting forecasts have emerged regarding the gains and losses for each candidate. It is noted that voters in their 20s to 40s tend to support Rep. Hong Jun-pyo of the People Power Party, while those aged 50 and above show strong support for former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, leading to busy vote calculations.

As of 10 a.m. on the 2nd, the mobile voting turnout for the People Power Party's presidential primary reached 47.4%. Inside and outside the party, it is expected that the party member turnout will exceed 60% when considering the ARS voting scheduled for the 3rd and 4th. Experts have so far predicted that in the public opinion polls, which account for 50% of the primary, Rep. Hong is favored, but in the other 50%, the party members' votes, former Prosecutor General Yoon holds the advantage. The key to victory lies in which side?public sentiment or party sentiment?shows a greater lead.

Lee Taek-soo, CEO of Realmeter, pointed out the heated enthusiasm for mobile voting, analyzing that "the fact that 240,000 people voted via mobile on the first day suggests that party members in their 20s to 40s likely voted in large numbers." Kim Jae-won, a Supreme Council member of the People Power Party, said, "In public opinion polls, those aged 50 and above make up 48.5%, but among party members, they account for 65.5%," adding, "The party member vote structure itself favors former Prosecutor General Yoon."

The crucial factor is the voting tendency of newly enrolled party members who joined en masse ahead of the primary. While Yeongnam party members previously accounted for 53% of all party members, their proportion has decreased to 42%, and the share of metropolitan area party members has increased from 32% to 35%, indicating a shift in the landscape. The influence of younger generation voters, metropolitan area voters, and moderate voters classified as broad conservatives who have joined the People Power Party remains an unknown question mark.

Additionally, doubts have been raised about the validity of the existing analysis method that estimated party sentiment based on the People Power Party support base in public opinion polls. Lee stated, "During the June 11 party convention, we inferred party sentiment (party member votes) from the People Power Party support base in public opinion polls, but it was completely inaccurate," and argued, "Party sentiment may lie somewhere between the People Power Party support base in public opinion polls and public sentiment."