[Politics, That Day...] The Turning Point of Roh Tae-woo's 1987 Election, What Happened in Seoul

The Foundation of the 1987 Four-Party Victory Theory, the 'Heart of Politics' Seoul's Choice
No Tae-woo, Kim Young-sam, Kim Dae-jung, Kim Jong-pil Clash... Seoul's Sweep Scenario

[Asia Economy Reporter Ryu Jeong-min]

Editor's Note‘Politics, That Day...’ is a series that looks back on Korean politics through the ‘recollection of memories’ related to notable scenes, events, and figures that deserve attention.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The reason Seoul is called the ‘heart of politics’ is not only because of its spatial significance as the location of the Blue House and the National Assembly, but also because it is the ‘largest electoral battleground’ that determines the outcome of presidential elections. Seoul has the highest number of voters nationwide, making it such a place.

The 1987 presidential election was a turning point in Korean political history. It was an election that shed the stigma of the gymnasium election, restored voting rights to the people, was a fierce contest to elect the first president under direct elections, and was marked by the ‘shouts of democratization’ that heated the streets from spring to winter.

The key keyword that ran through the 1987 presidential election was the so-called ‘Four-Party Winning Theory.’ The election featured political strongmen from Daegu-Gyeongbuk, Busan-Gyeongnam, Honam, and Chungcheong regions. This election, where Korea’s deep-rooted regionalism was most intense, drew attention to the Four-Party Winning Theory. Why was that?

The Four-Party Winning Theory emerged as a winning keyword for the opposition based on the momentum of the June 1987 democratization movement. The theory’s core was that if political strongmen in each region secured overwhelming votes, the decisive battle would be in the metropolitan area, especially Seoul.

The dream that the winner in Seoul could become president influenced the political choices of Kim Dae-jung, the candidate of the Peace Democratic Party based in Honam. The same applied to Kim Young-sam of the Reunification Democratic Party. It was a decisive obstacle that blocked opposition unity. The scenario seemed plausible.

Candidate Kim Dae-jung was confident about the Seoul election. The desire for democratization was a political asset. This confidence was based on the belief that even with four candidates running, he could win. The prevailing view was that finishing first in Seoul was a given, and the key was how much he could widen the margin.

Candidate Kim Young-sam was also confident about the Seoul election. It was expected that he would secure overwhelming votes in Busan-Gyeongnam and obtain more votes than Kim Dae-jung in regions other than Honam. The calculation was that if he performed well in the metropolitan area, especially Seoul, he could realistically aim for presidential victory.

In fact, Seoul had an overwhelmingly larger number of voters compared to other regions. At the time of the 1987 presidential election, Seoul had 6,486,710 voters. This was nearly twice the number of voters in Gyeonggi Province, which had 3,352,554 voters.

In the most recent presidential election in 2017, Gyeonggi Province had 10,262,309 voters. Over 30 years, the number of voters in Gyeonggi Province increased more than threefold. However, in the 1987 election, Seoul had twice as many voters as Gyeonggi Province.

If a particular candidate could secure an overwhelming number of votes in Seoul, the presidential election landscape could have changed.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The ruling Democratic Justice Party managed its expressions carefully while watching the opposition’s Four-Party Winning Theory debate. The theory implied division within the opposition. The ruling party fielded candidate Roh Tae-woo, but the election outlook was not easy. If Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung unified, the ruling party would have to prepare for defeat as the election dynamics would be shaken.

The Four-Party Winning Theory cast a ‘dark cloud’ over the opposition’s future. Ultimately, the opposition failed to unify, and a four-way contest unfolded. In the 1987 presidential election featuring candidates Roh Tae-woo, Kim Young-sam, Kim Dae-jung, and Kim Jong-pil, what happened in Seoul, regarded as the key battleground?

As rumors spread that Kim Dae-jung might win based on the Four-Party Winning Theory, ‘anti-Kim Dae-jung sentiment’ gained strength in regions outside Seoul and Honam. Kim Dae-jung secured only 2.6% in Daegu, 2.4% in Gyeongbuk, and 4.5% in Gyeongnam.

For the Four-Party Winning Theory to gain traction, Kim Dae-jung needed to secure a certain percentage of votes outside Honam, but his vote share was lower than expected. Considering that Kim Young-sam performed well with vote shares in the 20% range in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, this was a painful point for Kim Dae-jung.

For reference, Kim Dae-jung ranked third in Gyeonggi Province and Incheon. He needed a landslide victory in Seoul to hope for a dramatic turnaround based on the Four-Party Winning Theory.

In the 13th presidential election in 1987, candidate Roh Tae-woo’s vote share in Seoul did not even reach 30%. Among all elected presidents in history, Roh Tae-woo is the only one who won the presidency with less than 30% of the vote in Seoul.

Citizens visiting Namsan in Seoul are looking out over the open cityscape./Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

Candidate Roh Tae-woo received 1,682,824 votes, accounting for 29.95% of the vote. So, who did the remaining 70% of voters choose? If 70% of the votes had gone to a specific candidate, the Four-Party Winning Theory scenario might have been realized. But reality was different.

As expected, Kim Dae-jung ranked first in Seoul. However, with 1,833,010 votes, his vote share was only 32.62%. Kim Young-sam received 1,637,347 votes, accounting for 29.14%. Although Kim Dae-jung led Roh Tae-woo and Kim Young-sam in Seoul, the vote margin was not as large as expected.

The vote difference between Kim Dae-jung and Roh Tae-woo in Seoul was only 150,186 votes.

For reference, in Seo-gu, Daegu, Roh Tae-woo received 226,444 votes, while Kim Dae-jung received 7,667 votes. Roh Tae-woo’s vote margin over Kim Dae-jung in Seo-gu, Daegu was 218,777 votes. The vote difference between first and second place in Seoul was smaller than the vote difference in a single district of Daegu, Seo-gu.

Ultimately, ruling party candidate Roh Tae-woo won the 1987 presidential election with a nationwide vote share of 36.64%, despite receiving less than 30% of the vote in Seoul.