[AKyeong Poll] One-on-One Matchups with Lee Jae-myung Show Hong Joon-pyo, Won Hee-ryong, Yoo Seung-min, Yoon Seok-youl in Order

Yoon Seok-yeol Stumbles Amid Controversy Over Apology
Only Hong Joon-pyo Leads Against Lee Jae-myung in Virtual Head-to-Head Match

People Power Party presidential primary candidates Yoo Seung-min (from left), Hong Joon-pyo, Yoon Seok-youl, and Won Hee-ryong
[Photo by Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] A virtual one-on-one contest between the four People Power Party (PPP) presidential candidates and Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party presidential candidate, showed competitiveness in the order of Hong Joon-pyo, Won Hee-ryong, Yoo Seung-min, and Yoon Seok-youl. Amid controversies over Yoon’s remarks defending former President Chun Doo-hwan and the subsequent ‘dog apology controversy,’ Yoon’s approval ratings fluctuated significantly.

◆Close race with Lee Jae-myung regardless of opponent= In the virtual one-on-one polls conducted in the style of the PPP presidential primary, Lee Jae-myung, who was considered a strong contender, was most challenged by Hong Joon-pyo. Hong led Lee by 4.5 percentage points with 45.1% against Lee’s 40.6%. However, this is a close race within the margin of error. Former Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong trailed Lee by 1.6 percentage points with 38.6% to Lee’s 40.2%. Former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min received 36.1%, trailing Lee’s 38.9% by 2.9 percentage points. Former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl garnered 40.6% but was behind Lee’s 43.7%. Nevertheless, all four candidates’ approval ratings fall within the margin of error, making it difficult to determine a clear winner.

However, the noticeable change is the decline in competitiveness of former Prosecutor General Yoon, who had been leading in various polls. In the previous regular survey conducted from the 9th to the 10th, Yoon was ahead of Lee by 6 percentage points, but this was reversed in the current survey. Over two weeks, Yoon’s approval rating dropped by 5 percentage points, while Lee’s rose by 4.1 percentage points. On the 19th, Yoon met with party members in Busan and commented on former President Chun, saying, "Except for the military coup and the May 18 Gwangju Democratic Uprising, there are some wrong parts, but many say he did well in politics." Amid the backlash over this controversial remark, Yoon apologized repeatedly on the 21st. However, after Yoon’s apology, photos appeared on his camp’s social media showing an apology being offered to a dog, sparking public backlash with the sentiment ‘Give your apology to the dog.’

Hong, who led Lee by 9.4 percentage points in the previous regular survey, saw the gap narrow this time. It is analyzed that Lee’s appearance at the National Assembly audit to clarify suspicions related to the Daejang-dong development scandal had an effect. Additionally, the mudslinging and verbal attacks between Hong and Yoon also seem to have acted as negative factors for Hong.

◆Yoon Seok-youl and Hong Joon-pyo lead in party support= The PPP reflects 50% party member votes and 50% public opinion polls in this presidential primary. With party support being crucial, both Hong and Yoon showed strong support among party members. In the virtual one-on-one matchups, Hong and Yoon received overwhelming support from PPP supporters at 75.4% and 75.1%, respectively. In contrast, Won and Yoo received 67.4% and 53.3%, respectively.

Among the non-affiliated voters, Hong and Yoo showed strength. In virtual matchups against Lee, Hong and Yoo led Lee by 8.7 and 4.8 percentage points, respectively, among non-affiliated voters. Conversely, Yoon trailed Lee by 17.4 percentage points among non-affiliated voters. Won was nearly tied with Lee, trailing by 0.3 percentage points among non-affiliated voters.

The limited discriminative power of virtual one-on-one polls was confirmed again in this survey. The difference between Hong (+4.5 percentage points) and Yoon (-3.1 percentage points) in virtual matchups is only 7.6 percentage points. Park Si-young, CEO of WinG Korea Consulting, pointed out on a radio show that "statistically, how virtual matchups and party member votes are reflected involves a lot of subjective judgment." This suggests that controversy is inevitable regarding how virtual matchup poll results are combined with party member votes.

Another option mentioned is a four-choice poll, which tends to show a wider gap. In the ‘Conservative opposition presidential candidate suitability’ question, the results were Hong (27.3%), Yoon (26.9%), Yoo (15.7%), None (11.2%), Other figures (6.3%), Won (5.0%), Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party (4.9%), and Don’t know (2.7%). This survey clearly showed the dominance of Hong and Yoon. However, even in the conservative opposition candidate suitability poll, the suitability ratings of Hong and Yoon declined compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, support for Yoo Seung-min, Won Hee-ryong, and Ahn Cheol-soo slightly increased.

Another notable point is the difference between the poll results and the claims of each candidate’s camp. The virtual one-on-one format is known to be preferred by Yoon’s camp but was disadvantageous in the poll results. Conversely, the four-choice poll format favored by Hong’s camp was relatively advantageous for Yoon.

The PPP will decide its candidate through polls conducted on July 3-4. Depending on the polling method and the remaining three presidential candidate debates, public opinion is likely to fluctuate significantly.

▶How the survey was conducted

This survey was commissioned by Asia Economy to WinG Korea Consulting and conducted nationwide among eligible voters aged 18 and over from June 23 to 24, with 1,024 respondents and an overall response rate of 6.6%. The survey method was 100% mobile ARS using virtual phone numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the WinG Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.