"Japan General Election Voter Turnout Expected to Be Higher Than Previous Election"

Ruling Liberal Democratic Party Gains Advantage as Voter Turnout Decreases

Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi is giving a support speech at a street campaign event for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party candidate held in downtown Tokyo on the 21st.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Cho Hyun-ui] There is a possibility that the voter turnout in the upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election on the 31st will be higher than that of the election four years ago. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has won all four elections since 2009 when voter turnout was low, and lost when turnout was high.

According to a telephone survey conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun from the 19th to 20th targeting voters aged 18 and over nationwide (with 186,863 respondents), 77% of respondents said they would "definitely go" to vote in this election. Compared to a similar survey conducted before the October 2017 election, the percentage of respondents who said they would "definitely go" to the polls increased by 8 percentage points.

Yomiuri noted, "The survey methods differ from those used four years ago, so a simple comparison is not possible," but raised the possibility of increased voter turnout.

The actual voter turnout in the October 2017 election was 53.68%. This was higher than the 2014 election (52.66%) but lower than the 2012 election (59.32%).

The ruling LDP secured an outright majority in all three past elections, including the 2012 House of Representatives election when it regained power from the former Democratic Party. All these elections had voter turnout in the 50% range.

On the other hand, the voter turnout in the 2009 election, when the LDP suffered a crushing defeat and handed power to the Democratic Party, reached 69.28%. It is a common belief in Japanese political circles that lower voter turnout favors the LDP, which has a solid organizational vote base.

However, the LDP has also won many elections with high voter turnout. For example, in the 2005 election during the Koizumi Junichiro Cabinet, voter turnout reached 67.51%, and the LDP achieved a landslide victory by securing 61.6% of the total seats.