[Agyeong Poll] Presidential Candidates Hypothetical Matchup Lee Jae-myung 38.6% vs Hong Joon-pyo 48.0%

Hong Jun-pyo Leads by 9.3%p
Gap Between Two Candidates Widens Compared to Previous Survey

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeon Jinyoung] In a hypothetical matchup between Lee Jae-myung, the governor of Gyeonggi Province who directly advanced to the presidential election from the ruling party primary, and Hong Joon-pyo, a presidential candidate from the opposition People Power Party, Hong was found to be leading Lee beyond the margin of error.

On the 12th, Asia Economy commissioned Win-G Korea Consulting to conduct a public opinion poll from the 9th to 10th targeting 1,023 voters nationwide aged 18 and older (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response). When asked, "If Lee and Hong face off in the next presidential election, whom would you support?" Lee received 38.6%, while Hong received 48.0%. The gap between the candidates was 9.3 percentage points, with Hong leading beyond the margin of error. Other candidates accounted for 7.4%, and none/don't know were 6.0%.

Compared to the previous survey conducted in the fourth week of September, Hong's support rose by 1.4 percentage points, while Lee's dropped by 0.7 percentage points, widening the gap between the two candidates.

Lee led among those in their 40s (58.1%), the Chungcheong region (47.3%), Honam region (61.6%), and Gangwon-Jeju region (43.9%). Hong showed strength among males (55.0%), people in their 20s (58.5%) and 30s (47.5%), and seniors aged 60 and above (55.3%). Regionally, Hong led in Seoul (49.6%), Gyeonggi-Incheon (48.0%), Daegu-Gyeongbuk (64.7%), and Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (60.5%).

By party support, 75.5% of Democratic Party supporters said they back Lee Jae-myung, while 85.0% of People Power Party supporters said they support Hong Joon-pyo, indicating stronger cohesion among People Power Party supporters toward Hong.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 9th to 10th targeting voters aged 18 and older nationwide, with 1,023 respondents and an overall response rate of 7.1%. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 by the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.