COVID-19 tests have decreased but confirmed cases surge... Post-Chuseok holiday, 'Resurgence of the outbreak' may become a reality

On the last day of the Chuseok holiday, the 22nd, travelers returning home and citizens who visited the temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul Station Plaza are waiting to get tested. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Chun-hee] As the five-day Chuseok holiday ends on the 22nd, concerns are rising that the fourth wave of COVID-19 will explode again around the holiday period. Despite the holiday, new confirmed cases set record highs for the day of the week over four consecutive days from the 18th to the 21st, indicating that the spread shows no signs of stopping.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, as of midnight on this day, the cumulative number of COVID-19 confirmed cases increased by 1,720 to reach 290,983. During the five days of the Chuseok holiday, 9,049 confirmed cases were recorded with daily counts of 2,087 → 1,909 → 1,604 → 1,729 → 1,720. Except for the 22nd, all days set record highs for the day of the week, showing that the spread continued even during the holiday.

This increase is particularly concerning because it occurred despite a decrease in the number of COVID-19 diagnostic tests conducted. The total number of tests, which was around 150,000 on weekdays, dropped below 100,000 after the start of the Chuseok holiday on the 18th, recording 96,310 → 75,233 → 90,317 → 99,473 tests on testing days, yet confirmed cases increased rapidly.

The weekly average number of confirmed cases, a key indicator for adjusting social distancing levels and monitoring the spread, reached a record high of 1,876.9 as of the 21st. On the same day, the metropolitan area also set a record with 1,448.0 cases, and Seoul exceeded 700 cases for the first time, reaching 705.9. However, as of the 22nd, the nationwide average was 1,826.6, the metropolitan area 1,399.4, and Seoul 682.6, all showing slight decreases compared to the previous day. Still, this is considered premature to be reassured, as the usual pattern of the highest weekday peak occurring on Wednesdays with over 2,000 cases was disrupted by the holiday effect.

Because a rapid increase in mobility during the fourth wave has been followed by a surge in confirmed cases, there are forecasts that the pandemic could grow uncontrollably. Previously, right after the summer vacation period ended, a record high of 2,221 cases was recorded on the 11th of last month. After the Liberation Day holiday (August 14?16), the first-ever consecutive two days with over 2,000 cases occurred on the 19th and 20th, confirming a chain reaction where increased mobility leads to a rapid rise in confirmed cases. Especially, this Chuseok holiday is expected to see a 3.5% increase in mobility compared to last year’s Chuseok, which heightens these concerns.

On the last day of the Chuseok holiday, the 22nd, visitors returning home and citizens are getting tested at a temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul Station Plaza. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

In response to the rapid spread, health authorities have defined the current situation as a global crisis and remain vigilant. Lee Sang-won, head of the Epidemiological Investigation and Analysis Team at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, stated, "A significant increase in contacts and mobility before Chuseok has been confirmed by the data," adding, "Especially during the Chuseok holiday, the increase in contacts is clearly a major factor in the rise of cases." He analyzed, "The increase pattern is more likely to be gradual rather than explosive," and explained the government’s response policy, "The goal is to prevent an explosive outbreak that would burden the healthcare system."

He urged, "Even if it is regrettable, please reduce meeting times a little," and added, "After enjoying the holiday, if you experience any symptoms, please get tested immediately."