[The Editors' Verdict] Chinese Foreign Minister Visits Korea Amid Presidential Election Season

Lee Yong-jun, Former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Ambassador for North Korean Nuclear Issues

Wang Yi, China's Foreign Minister, will visit South Korea for two days starting on the 14th. This visit appears to be part of China's diplomatic efforts to address the numerous domestic and international challenges it faces amid the intensifying US-China hegemonic competition. The Biden administration's military and economic pressure on China has been unexpectedly strong, and the economic decoupling pursued by the US has led to declines in exports and foreign investment, limiting China's economic growth.

Moreover, worsening international opinion over human rights abuses in the Xinjiang Uyghur region has led to a boycott movement of the Beijing Winter Olympics, mainly among European countries. President Xi Jinping's plan for a third term next year is also facing challenges.

Last month, the US, having extricated itself from the 20-year quagmire of the Afghanistan war, is concentrating its overseas military capabilities on the front against China, worsening the military situation. The 'Freedom of Navigation Operations' in the South China Sea, involving US allies in the Asia-Pacific region as well as European allies such as the UK and France, are blocking China's grand ambition to illegally incorporate 90% of the vast South China Sea.

This military tension is spreading to the Taiwan issue, and the 'One China' principle established over the past 50 years is being shaken at its roots. The US is taking steps to recognize Taiwan as a de facto state, and Japan has pledged immediate military intervention in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

In this dire situation, South Korea is a very important presence for China. South Korea, the weakest link in the US Indo-Pacific alliance system, is a 'home rabbit' that China must hold onto in its hegemonic confrontation with the US. China has set the so-called 'First Island Chain' to expel the US Navy from East Asian waters by 2025. The Korean Peninsula lies inside the 'First Island Chain,' which connects the Philippines, Taiwan, Okinawa, and Japan, making it a strategic point that China must prioritize controlling.

South Korea's critical position and the recent possibility of its drifting away from China's sphere of influence are causing China to be tense. On May 21, South Korea declared support for most of the key US-China issues emphasized by the US in the joint statement between South Korea and the US presidents. This included the South China Sea issue, China's human rights issues, the highly sensitive Taiwan issue, and the investigation into the origins of COVID-19.

The discussion of reducing US troops in South Korea during the Trump administration has now disappeared, and the US Congress is even considering including South Korea in the US's top-tier alliance system, the 'Five Eyes.' Furthermore, 77% of South Korean citizens have unfavorable views of China, and there is no guarantee that a pro-China regime will be reestablished in next year's presidential election.

In this context, Wang Yi's core mission during his visit to South Korea will likely be threefold. First, to prevent South Korea, which has become almost China's 'home rabbit,' from drifting away from China's sphere of influence; second, to secure President Moon Jae-in's attendance at the Beijing Winter Olympics to counter the international boycott movement; and third, to use the Winter Olympics as an opportunity to help the South Korean government stage a peace show between North and South Korea and thereby facilitate the reestablishment of a pro-China regime in South Korea.

South Korea's domestic political choices amid the sharp US-China bloc confrontation reminiscent of the Cold War may become a significant historical turning point remembered for generations. To restore the sovereignty of this country, which has been partially or wholly encroached upon by China, the wise judgment of awakened citizens wary of China is more crucial now than ever before.