[Imokhee's Homopoliticus] Lee Nak-yeon and the Presidential Election Paradigm

Imokhee, Asia Economy Senior Correspondent

The fluctuations in public opinion poll support for former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon are an interesting subject for analysis. Earlier this year, he seemed to have completely fallen out of the winning zone. However, as the party's primary election intensified last month, he somewhat recovered. It is observed that his stable image worked in his favor. Could he become the ruling party's presidential candidate? The final choice of the party's electorate, especially voters from Honam, is drawing attention.

Last year, former leader Lee led the polls overwhelmingly. Yet, political pundits who claim to understand the election landscape shook their heads. There are two main reasons. First is his home region. It is believed that ruling party supporters would not choose a candidate from Honam, a region with fewer voters, as the final candidate. Second is the difficulty in differentiating himself from the incumbent president. Until now, ruling party candidates have adopted a strategy of criticizing the president. This was a major paradigm throughout the last presidential election.

Recently, Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung offended Honam voters. When his mention of Baekje caused controversy, he explained that his intention was misunderstood. Nevertheless, regional sentiments remain a volatile volcano that can erupt at any time. The population gap between Yeongnam and Honam is very large. Anyone can imagine that if regional sentiments flare up near the end of the election, it would be difficult for a candidate from Honam to win. This is the so-called 'Honam Impossibility Theory.'

The population ratio of the Honam region was not originally this small. Historically, it was comparable to the Yeongnam region and much larger than Chungcheong. In a 1925 survey during the Japanese colonial period, Honam had about 4.49 million people, surpassing Yeongnam's 3.48 million and Chungcheong's 2.65 million. Since the 1960s, industrialization centered around the Gyeongbu Line increased Yeongnam's population ratio, making Honam a minority. There is underlying dissatisfaction in Honam for having benefited less from industrialization. Political representation has also weakened.

Only two Honam natives have run as major party candidates in presidential elections: former President Kim Dae-jung (DJ) and former lawmaker Chung Dong-young. DJ succeeded in gaining power through a regional alliance with former Prime Minister Kim Jong-pil from Chungcheong. However, the victory was also due to former lawmaker Lee In-je leaving the opposing party and running, which split the Yeongnam vote. Chung Dong-young, lacking a similar strategy, was defeated by a large margin.

In terms of charisma and political skill, former leader Lee cannot be compared to DJ. For his victory chances to open up, voter tendencies must change. Let's look at the metropolitan area. Until the early 2000s, candidates first focused on the original domicile of their constituency voters. Strategies had to align with voters' regional origins such as Yeongnam, Honam, or Chungcheong. Now, with many second and third generations having left their hometowns, the concept of original domicile is fading. Active information exchange through social networking services (SNS) is leading voters away from regional sentiments. Whether the metropolitan area's atmosphere will spread to Yeongnam and Honam in this election remains to be seen.

The relationship between former leader Lee and the incumbent president is also a key point in election analysis. In the past, differentiation was essential for a ruling party's leading presidential candidate. Voters' psychology is subtle. They are stingy with candidates who give the impression of being a 'yes-man.' Candidates gain attention by criticizing the ruling power. When persecuted, sympathy arises. Stars are born by overcoming the pressure of power.

In the 1987 presidential election, then-President Chun Doo-hwan told his successor, "Step over me." Candidate Roh Tae-woo was elected in that atmosphere. However, after taking office, during the '5th Republic purge,' he did not protect his predecessor. The public's political awareness also sharpened. Pretending to sacrifice by the incumbent president no longer worked. Subsequently, ruling party candidates increased criticism toward the Blue House to differentiate themselves. Eventually, cases of presidents leaving the party repeated.

When former leader Lee's support declined earlier this year, he chose reverse differentiation. He publicly declared he would stay with President Moon Jae-in until the end. From the perspective of past paradigms, this was a strategy that did not help expand votes. However, so far, he is breaking away from the old paradigm. Lee's 'Together with the President' campaign has had some effect. President Moon's approval rating remains around 40%, which is a strength. This is unusual for the end of a term.

Another variable may appear as the election reaches its climax. The temptation to differentiate to spread nationwide support is always strong. Governor Lee Jae-myung is also cautious about full differentiation for now. Alienating President Moon's supporters would not guarantee victory in the party primary. Having already upset Honam sentiments by mentioning Baekje, taking further risks is difficult.

Among ruling party supporters, many dislike Governor Lee Jae-myung. Their dilemma is deep. They want to choose former leader Lee. But can he win the general election? Considering some of Governor Lee's weaknesses, some analysts say betting on former leader Lee has a higher chance of victory. Some supporters are extreme. They say it would be better to hand over the election to the opposition than have Governor Lee win. They doubt his reliability in terms of post-election rewards and protecting predecessors. If such suspicions turn into certainty, the Democratic Party's candidate primary will become truly unpredictable.

Voters' political awareness has increased. The election scene observed over 40 years as a journalist reminds one of a game of push and pull. It is a subtle psychological battle among presidential candidates, major parties, and voters casting ballots. In the short term, voters may seem fickle. But in the long run, collective intelligence is evident.

Regional sentiments and political retaliation are side effects of satisfying local people's demands and clearing past evils. It is everyone's responsibility in this era to prevent these from becoming too severe. The problem is that inciting regional sentiments and threatening to wipe out opponents help gain votes in reality. I hope a catalyst appears to change the stereotypical election framework through anyone. So that election experts who emphasize old cases shouting 'Back in my day...' will be embarrassed.

Lee Mok-hee, Asia Economy Senior Analyst