[Kwon Heon-yeong's Data Innovation] 'K-Bangyeok and Data'

Utilizing Infectious Disease Prediction Mathematical Models Since the 2015 MERS Outbreak
Experience of Reproduction Number Prediction Failure as the Foundation of K-Quarantine
Preserving COVID-19 Datasets Expected to Be the Basis for Future K-Quarantine

The resurgence of the COVID-19 virus, led by the Delta variant, is fierce. For the past week, the number of new confirmed cases has fluctuated between 1,300 and 1,800, and it is now approaching the 1,900 mark. This breaks previous records for new cases. Moreover, the re-spread in advanced countries that had over-relied on vaccinations is emerging as a bigger problem. The excited atmosphere fueled by hopes for summer vacations has been trapped in unprecedented social distancing measures as the peak holiday season arrives. The government, which had announced a relaxation of social distancing starting July 1, has admitted its prediction failure and even the president has stepped in to announce nationwide strengthening of quarantine measures.

From the public’s perspective, caught between easing and tightening of quarantine measures and witnessing prediction failures, trust in the government inevitably declines. There remains regret that when the number of confirmed cases was maintaining at the 500 level, a more meticulous analysis of the increasing trend and related data could have been conducted to make predictions and adopt more conservative policy decisions.

However, there is no need to worry too much. We can quickly correct course as we have done so far. Since the early days of COVID-19, we have gone through countless trials and errors to become the world’s top model country for COVID-19 quarantine. These trials and errors trace back to the 2015 MERS outbreak. At that time, we utilized infectious disease prediction mathematical models (models that analyze transmission situations by creating mathematical formulas representing the spread of infectious diseases), but we experienced failure in predicting the reproduction number. Medical professionals, mathematical prediction model experts, and quarantine authorities put their heads together to solve the problem again. That experience became the foundation of the globally recognized K-quarantine brand.

During the initial outbreak at the Daegu Shincheonji Church, the summer urban rallies that triggered the second wave, and intermittent group infections at entertainment venues and religious gatherings, these trials and errors were repeated, leading to a better quarantine system. Even during the mask shortage crisis, despite initial confusion, swift responses overcame the crisis. Since no country had ever experienced a global pandemic of this scale, there was no model to follow. We have overcome this crisis through our own trials and errors, and other countries praise us. Now, they are going beyond praise and are trying to follow our example.

According to the OECD COVID-19 Pain Index published by the German media Die Zeit, South Korea suffers the least pain among member countries. It is said to be the number one country that has caught both the rabbits of quarantine and economy. American media openly express that South Korea is a country that achieved results by utilizing data, new technologies, and science without threatening democracy and freedom, and that the Biden administration should follow suit. The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and The Atlantic also positively evaluate South Korea. British media such as The Guardian and BBC analyze why the successful quarantine in South Korea fails in the UK.

At this point, it is time to acknowledge that we are pioneering a new path for the world and humanity and to take a kind of responsibility. We must carefully analyze how K-quarantine is experiencing success and failure.

Not only President Moon Jae-in, who was invited to the G7, but also our citizens are quite surprised that the world recognizes our data capabilities. While it is well known that South Korea is number one in COVID-19 quarantine, few realize that hidden behind this success is the contribution of data. Of course, we must not forget to be grateful to the world’s top medical professionals who have accumulated data and prepared public healthcare well through the experience of MERS.

From the moment the first patient was introduced, the scientific research and response to the virus characteristics, along with the public release of virus spread models as numerical data and their reflection in policy, have attracted global attention. Especially after dealing with COVID-19 for over a year, policies based on data are being implemented. The UK envies this aspect the most. Now, the results of social distancing policies are reflected in the number of confirmed cases every two weeks. Both policy transparency and acceptance are high.

Another point attracting global attention is information technology infrastructure and data. A country that created a mask app in a day or two for the entire population to use immediately. A country where people reserve leftover vaccines via smartphones and get vaccinated in real time. A country that manages infectious disease confirmed case tracking data through QR codes and personal safety numbers. We are so accustomed to this that we do not realize it, but in other countries, these are like unreachable dreams.

There is tremendous expertise hidden here. Hospitals and pharmacies are all connected through networks, and the entire supply chain is managed by information technology, which is not something that can be achieved in a year or two. Other countries want to imitate this but cannot, and only a few countries can do it. Over the past 30 years, connecting every corner with optical communication networks and being the first in the world to commercialize 5th generation mobile communication (5G) was largely thanks to the public’s strong desire for fast communication and bold investments.

Now is not the time for mere praise but to prepare for the future. Just as the trials and errors of MERS became medicine, COVID-19 responses must be carefully analyzed for the future. The government is promoting a ‘COVID-19 Time Capsule Project’ to preserve extensive datasets related to COVID-19 response and prepare for the future. Although difficult, someone must show leadership for this project to succeed. We hope this project will become the foundation for future data-based K-quarantine.