[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Have the North and South Already Agreed to Cancel Joint Military Exercises?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Following the agreement between the South and North Korean leaders, the military communication line was reactivated after 13 months, drawing attention to whether the upcoming South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises scheduled for next month will be conducted.

On the 28th, the Ministry of National Defense stated, "The timing and scale have not yet been decided," but considering that the Combined Command Post Training (CCPT) is scheduled to take place from August 10 to 27, there are criticisms that the schedule should have already been announced.

So far, the South Korean military appears strongly determined to conduct the training even if it means reducing its scale, in order to facilitate the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON). In March, the first half of the year’s joint command post training was scaled down due to the spread of COVID-19, preventing verification of the Full Operational Capability (FOC) of the future Combined Forces Command that will exercise OPCON. The FOC verification has repeatedly failed since the second half of last year’s training.

The South Korean military holds the position that regular joint exercises are necessary to maintain a solid combined defense posture. It is also known that some officials within the U.S. Department of Defense and Department of State have mentioned the need to adjust joint exercises to maintain momentum in the denuclearization negotiations on the Korean Peninsula.

In particular, there was a strong atmosphere that the training could proceed as planned, as soldiers from both sides’ field units, including key personnel from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command, and the United States Forces Korea, who are expected to participate in the joint exercises, have been vaccinated against COVID-19.

However, with the reactivation of the communication channel, there is an expectation that the tightly blocked inter-Korean relations and the situation on the Korean Peninsula could breathe new life, raising hopes for the possibility of adjusting the joint exercises.

Considering that President Moon Jae-in and North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un exchanged friendly letters about ten times starting from the third anniversary of the inter-Korean summit at Panmunjom on April 27, some speculate that the two leaders may have already agreed to cancel the joint exercises. It is reported that President Moon and Chairman Kim agreed to restore the communication line through a letter last week. The date for restoring the communication line on the 27th was chosen with the 68th anniversary of the signing of the Korean War armistice agreement in mind.

President Moon also remarked in May, "Large-scale military exercises may be difficult due to COVID-19." Although he outwardly mentioned the possibility of canceling the exercises due to COVID-19, it is highly likely that the cancellation was already discussed between the two Koreas.

During a luncheon meeting with leaders of the five political parties held at the Blue House at that time, President Moon said, "There will be judgments considering North Korea and the United States," according to Lee Dong-young, spokesperson for the Justice Party. This statement by President Moon reportedly came in response to Justice Party leader Yeo Young-guk’s proposal to suggest holding the inter-Korean Military Joint Committee to North Korea with the intention of canceling or postponing the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises scheduled for August, aiming to open the door for inter-Korean dialogue.