[AKYUNG Poll] In Two Consecutive Head-to-Head Matches, Lee Nak-yeon Narrowly Surpasses Yoon Seok-yeol Within Margin of Error

Leading by 2.3%P at 45.6%
Democratic Unity Centered on Lee Nak-yeon Strengthens

In Lee Jae-myung vs. Yoon Seok-yeol Duel,
Yoon Leads by 1.5%P

[Asia Economy Reporters Oh Ju-yeon and Jeon Jin-young] Former Democratic Party leader Lee Nak-yeon showed a narrow lead within the margin of error over former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl, the leading opposition candidate, in two consecutive head-to-head matchups. On the other hand, Lee Jae-myung, Governor of Gyeonggi Province, who maintains first place in overall presidential candidate polls and Democratic Party primary candidate surveys, showed less competitiveness than Lee Nak-yeon in a one-on-one contest against Yoon. This result is interpreted as demonstrating that the Democratic Party support base rallying around Lee Nak-yeon is more solid than that around Lee Jae-myung.

In the ‘Lee Nak-yeon vs. Yoon Seok-youl’ matchup, Lee Nak-yeon received 45.6%, leading Yoon Seok-youl’s 43.4% by 2.3 percentage points, which is within the margin of error. This is similar to the previous survey (July 10-11) of the same head-to-head contest, where Lee Nak-yeon also led by 2.5 percentage points within the margin of error. Both surveys have a sampling error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. However, in the ‘Lee Jae-myung vs. Yoon Seok-youl’ matchup, Yoon Seok-youl held a slight lead. Lee Jae-myung garnered 42.4% support against Yoon’s 43.9%, trailing by 1.5 percentage points. In the previous survey, Lee Jae-myung also failed to surpass Yoon, with 41.5% to Yoon’s 42.2%.

The difference in these two head-to-head results, which can be seen as ‘general election competitiveness,’ relates to the voting intentions of those who did not support the opposing candidate when the final candidate was decided as either Lee Jae-myung or Lee Nak-yeon.

If the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate is decided as ‘Lee Jae-myung’ and the election is held as ‘Lee Jae-myung vs. Yoon Seok-youl,’ 73.5% of Democratic Party supporters said they would back Lee Jae-myung. Conversely, if the Democratic Party’s candidate is ‘Lee Nak-yeon’ and the contest is ‘Lee Nak-yeon vs. Yoon Seok-youl,’ 82.6% of Democratic Party supporters said they would vote for Lee Nak-yeon, a significantly higher figure.

This was further analyzed in detail as ‘when the final candidate is decided as someone other than the originally supported candidate.’

Respondents who identified themselves as ‘Lee Nak-yeon supporters in a multi-candidate race’ said only 47.7% would support Lee Jae-myung in a ‘Lee Jae-myung vs. Yoon Seok-youl’ contest. The rest would disperse their votes, for example, by choosing a third candidate rather than Lee Jae-myung. Conversely, respondents who identified as ‘Lee Jae-myung supporters in a multi-candidate race’ said 71.0% would support Lee Nak-yeon in a ‘Lee Nak-yeon vs. Yoon Seok-youl’ contest. Politically, this is interpreted as the ‘cohesion of the Democratic Party support base’ being stronger around Lee Nak-yeon.

Among People Power Party supporters, 85.1% supported Yoon Seok-youl in the ‘Lee Jae-myung vs. Yoon Seok-youl’ contest, and 84.9% chose Yoon in the ‘Lee Nak-yeon vs. Yoon Seok-youl’ contest, showing little difference in opposition party cohesion regardless of the candidate.

Meanwhile, amid intensifying regionalism conflicts among ruling party candidates due to recent ‘Baekje remarks’ and other issues, Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon each held advantages in the Honam region in their respective head-to-head matchups against Yoon Seok-youl, with 53.5% and 60.5% support respectively. Yoon Seok-youl showed advantages in Daegu and Gyeongbuk regions, with 68.7% (against Lee Jae-myung) and 64.2% (against Lee Nak-yeon) support respectively.

This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting targeting nationwide voters aged 18 and over from June 24 to 25. A total of 1,008 people responded, with an overall response rate of 7.0%. The survey method was 100% mobile ARS using virtual phone numbers, and the sample was extracted with weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.