[ US-China Hegemony and Korean Diplomacy ] US-China Cooperative Competition, Urgent Need for Korea's Multilateral Cooperation Competitiveness

[Asia Economy Reporter Inho Yoo] The conflict or confrontation between the United States and China is a struggle for leadership over how to reshape the international order. No region in the world is free from the influence of this struggle.

The Korean Peninsula is no exception. South Korea maintains a strong security alliance with the United States and close economic ties with China.

However, depending on future developments, it cannot be ruled out that South Korea may be forced to choose between the two great powers. The situation on the Korean Peninsula, including North Korea's denuclearization, could change depending on how U.S.-China relations are reset.

Professor Hwang Jae-ho, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies. / Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

We held a three-way email dialogue under the theme "South Korea's Diplomatic Path amid U.S.-China Hegemonic Competition," centered on Professor Hwang Jae-ho of the Department of International Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, a regular columnist for this publication, along with Professor Joseph Nye, Emeritus Professor at Harvard University, and Professor Ziqing Guo of the School of International Studies at Peking University.

△ Professor Hwang Jae-ho (hereafter Hwang) = Since World War II, the United States has established itself as the world's strongest power for over 70 years. During this period, the U.S. built a dense network and infrastructure in the international community.

Yet, looking at the U.S.'s recent actions, it seems to lack confidence. Is the U.S. afraid of a new challenger? Are U.S.-China relations currently at the beginning of a new Cold War?

△ Joseph Nye (hereafter Nye) = I do not see it as a new Cold War. U.S.-China relations are far more interdependent than U.S.-Soviet relations during the Cold War.

Besides the economic sector, there is ecological interdependence in areas such as climate change and infectious diseases, making unilateral problem-solving in the international community difficult.

From this perspective, complete U.S.-China decoupling is practically impossible, and it is more accurate to call it cooperative competition between the U.S. and China.

△ Ziqing Guo (hereafter Guo) = China wants to normalize relations with the U.S. Chinese leaders have continuously shown goodwill toward the U.S., but have not received positive responses. As a result, U.S.-China relations remain in a state of confusion.

△ Hwang = China still needs tremendous time and effort to create its own global values and models like the U.S. China maintains a policy of not forming alliances, but is it that China cannot make alliances rather than not making them?

What kind of values and models must China create to gain competitiveness?

△ Guo = China has not tried to propose a Chinese-style development model for the development of other countries.

China has built and implemented an independent development path based on national particularities, so this cannot be universally applied to all countries. However, the Chinese development model can serve as a good reference for other countries seeking development paths suited to their own conditions.

△ Nye = China is facing difficulties projecting its soft power to Asia and the international community due to conflicts with neighboring countries.

Moreover, it is criticized for strict party control under the Leninist model, which hinders the development of civil society. The rise of Chinese nationalism and the "Chinese Dream" are not good export models.

△ Hwang = The Korean Peninsula policy is important in U.S.-China relations. Especially, the Biden administration's North Korea policy is set on dialogue and diplomacy.

However, North Korea's demand for sanctions relief seems to have been rejected at last month's South Korea-U.S. summit, and conflict with North Korea remains a constant. How should we approach our North Korea policy?

△ Nye = The Kim Jong-un regime wants to divide South Korea and the U.S. on the Korean Peninsula issue, but this contradicts South Korea's foreign strategy. Therefore, South Korea should be cautious about separating from the U.S. while making policy efforts to ease tensions with North Korea.

△ Guo = For the time being, since both North Korea and the U.S. will not change their current positions, South Korea does not have many options. China’s position is very similar to South Korea’s.

It will not be easy to make a choice biased toward either the desire for denuclearization or the hope for a peace regime. In this situation, the best option for South Korea is to take time and wait.

△ Hwang = Following last month's South Korea-U.S. summit, the diplomatic competition among South Korea, the U.S., and China surrounding the Korean Peninsula is in full swing.

In particular, the joint statement of the South Korea-U.S. summit carefully considered China by avoiding phrases that would provoke direct public opposition from China, such as references to the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) and the South China Sea.

South Korea's strategic value between the U.S. and China is rising, but invisible pressure and dilemmas from both sides are likely to be considerable. Can we say that the Moon Jae-in administration has been handling the situation wisely between the U.S. and China?

△ Guo = Such policies may be possible to utilize and balance U.S. and China positions at an appropriate level, but in the long term, they carry considerable risks as they may not gain trust from either side and may be met with suspicion.

The best diplomatic approach for South Korea regarding U.S.-China relations is to maintain neutrality while persuading the U.S. and China to adopt a more practical approach to issues related to South Korea’s national interests, such as North Korea’s nuclear issue.

△ Nye = South Korea should keep China’s national interests in mind while recognizing the possibility that China may restrict South Korea’s independent actions. Therefore, the South Korean government should not think it can resolve China-related issues with caution or a submissive attitude.

Such diplomatic responses should also avoid increasing U.S. distrust toward South Korea.

△ Hwang = The Korean Peninsula may threaten China’s sovereignty but is not a core interest; it can be considered an important interest equivalent to a core interest. What do you think?

△ Guo = China considers the Korean Peninsula a very important partner in both security and economic fields and opposes North Korea’s nuclear weapons development, which poses a serious threat to China and the world.

China believes that peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula are very important to the interests of the involved countries. Therefore, China positively views dialogue and negotiations among regional stakeholders to achieve denuclearization.

△ Nye = Historically, South Korea has had geopolitical issues among strong neighboring countries like China and Japan for a long time, but after World War II, it has resolved related issues through an alliance with the U.S., which is distant from territorial interests in Northeast Asia.

Considering that the China variable will continue in geopolitical interests, South Korea needs to maintain its alliance with the U.S. effectively without completely excluding China.

△ Hwang = Do you think South Korea-Japan relations can improve? If so, what are the prerequisites?

△ Guo = One way to restore South Korea-Japan relations is to reject the practice of bringing historical issues between the two countries into diplomatic relations. The benefits of a stable and cooperative relationship between the two countries are considerable.

Therefore, both countries should clearly recognize that cooperative relations will benefit both countries rather than intensifying conflicts through strengthened nationalist sentiments and historical issues.

△ Hwang = If you were to score Biden’s diplomacy so far...

△ Guo = I would give it 6 out of 10. Since taking office, President Biden has been doing the right things domestically and internationally.

However, even after several months in office, the goals of his China policy remain unclear. Like President Trump, Biden interprets U.S.-China relations as strategic competition, but strategic competition is a means, not a goal.

△ Nye = Since taking office, President Biden has been pursuing policies to restore America’s soft power in the international community.

△ Hwang = There are voices that South Korean diplomacy should move beyond the Korean Peninsula and contribute globally. What should be the orientation of South Korean diplomacy?

△ Nye = South Korea has achieved tremendous economic growth and democratic prosperity. South Korea can be said to have achieved development surpassing China’s rise.

South Korea has the capacity to play a greater role in the international community. It needs to lead solutions to important ecological issues such as climate change and infectious diseases, which will become more significant in world politics.

△ Guo = Especially amid geopolitical power shifts, it is important for South Korea to maximize its diplomatic interests and actively participate in multilateral cooperation to address various regional and global challenges and increase its influence.

Participation in multilateral cooperation will more easily raise South Korea’s international status and promote South Korea’s national interests in regional and global governance.

◇ Joseph Nye, Emeritus Professor at Harvard University, is a leading American international relations scholar. He served as Deputy Under Secretary of State in the Jimmy Carter administration and as Chairman of the National Intelligence Council and Deputy Under Secretary of Defense in the Bill Clinton administration.

In 2014, the authoritative foreign affairs magazine Foreign Policy named him the most influential figure in international relations academia and policy that year.

Professor Nye has published works including Understanding International Conflicts, Soft Power, Power and Interdependence, Is the American Century Over?, and in 2020, Do Morals Matter? American Diplomacy in the Age of Realism.

◇ Ziqing Guo, currently a professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University and director of the Center for Sino-Foreign Humanities Exchange, is regarded as China’s top foreign policy expert. After graduating from Beijing Foreign Studies University, he earned his master's and doctoral degrees at Cornell University.

He has been a professor at the University of Sydney and a fellow at the Brookings Institution, and served as dean of the School of International Studies at Peking University until 2018. Since 2013, Professor Guo has been a standing committee member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, one of China’s three major political bodies, alongside the State Council and the National People's Congress.

His books include The Great Power Has Come, Mutual Construction: China’s Rise and the World, and Theory and Practice of Public Diplomacy.

◇ Hwang Jae-ho of the Department of International Studies at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies currently serves as a member of the Presidential Policy Planning Committee, an advisor to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, and has previously served as an advisor to the National Security Office of the Blue House and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Compiled by Reporter Inho Yoo sinryu007@