Chinese Think Tank: "Probability of China-Taiwan Clash Higher Than Right After the Chinese Civil War"

"War Risk Index Exceeds 7 This Year... Higher Than 1950"
"If Current Trend Continues, Taiwan's Forced Unification Is a Matter of Time"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Hyun-woo] A think tank supported by the Chinese Communist Party has released a report stating that the likelihood of armed conflict between China and Taiwan has risen to an all-time high, surpassing the period immediately following the 1950 Chinese Civil War. The analysis suggests that the war atmosphere between the two sides across the Taiwan Strait is intensifying sharply as both the Trump and Biden administrations in the United States continue their tough stance against China.

According to the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP) on the 21st, the Cross-Strait Academy, a think tank under the Communist Youth League of China, recently analyzed the relationship between mainland China and Taiwan over time and reported that as of 2021, the relationship between China and Taiwan is at its worst, with a higher probability of conflict than immediately after the 1950 Chinese Civil War.

The think tank calculated the risk index of armed conflict between China and Taiwan since the 1949 Chinese Civil War and revealed that the risk index, which started at 6.7 in the early 1950s, has surged to 7.21 this year, marking a record high.

According to the institute's calculated index, the risk index of armed conflict between the two sides, which began at 6.7, dropped to 4.55 after China established diplomatic relations with the United States in 1978, and then approached zero by 1994. However, it began to rise sharply afterward, especially after the Kuomintang's 55-year rule ended in 2000 and the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party took power in Taiwan.

The institute stated, "If the current trend continues, China's military unification of Taiwan is only a matter of time," adding, "The deepening military relationship between the United States and Taiwan is raising the risk index, so we will continue to monitor the current trend."