[Global Focus] Biden's Strategy to Restore 'Global Leadership' Amid the 'Middle East Quagmire'

Arab League Countries Including Saudi Face Growing Pressure to Normalize Diplomatic Relations with Israel
Hardliner Rule Expected, Raising Concerns Over Stalled Iran Nuclear Deal Talks
Atlantic Alliance Restoration Also Challenging...Europe Fears Influx of Middle East Refugees

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] U.S. President Joe Biden’s strategy to restore America’s ‘global leadership,’ a key pledge since before his inauguration, has faced a new test amid the Palestinian conflict. While the conflict between Israel and Palestine is a long-standing issue repeatedly occurring in the Middle East, it erupted as the Biden administration was shaping its early international diplomatic framework, drawing attention to its potential impact on future U.S. foreign policy. There are concerns that the entire basic diplomatic policy of the Biden administration?including its Middle East exit strategy, return to the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), and restoration of the Atlantic alliance?could be fundamentally shaken. The sentiments of Arab countries and European nations have also become complicated.

◇ U.S. Middle East Exit Strategy Stalled

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

According to foreign media such as The Washington Post (WP) and The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on the 17th (local time), Biden administration officials have assessed that the conflict between Israel and Palestine could obstruct the U.S. Middle East exit strategy.

WP cited a senior U.S. official saying, "The Palestinian issue is a matter that risks dragging the U.S. into the ‘Middle East quagmire,’ which President Biden has wanted to avoid as much as possible," and pointed out, "The core of Biden’s diplomatic strategy is to reduce involvement in Middle Eastern and European issues and focus all efforts on China."

The New York Times (NYT) also reported, "Following the previous Donald Trump administration, the Biden administration has tried to expand Israel’s diplomatic authority over the Middle East region as much as possible and avoid involvement in complex issues," but "due to this conflict, both international and domestic public opinion have worsened, raising concerns that Middle East issues may once again become central to diplomacy."

The U.S. Department of Defense estimates that the U.S. has spent over $4 trillion (approximately 4,535 trillion KRW) on wars in the Middle East, including Iraq, Syria, and Afghanistan, since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The Biden administration, busy addressing domestic issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic and large-scale economic stimulus measures, has been striving to reduce involvement in the Middle East. Instead, the administration planned to concentrate diplomatic efforts on Asian issues such as China and North Korea.

However, with the outbreak of the Palestinian conflict, the position of pro-American allies in the Middle East is narrowing, and concerns are rising that core diplomatic policies?including the Iran nuclear deal, restoration of the Atlantic alliance, and strengthening the containment of China?may all be shaken, forcing a renewed focus on Middle East policy.

◇ Growing Voices of Arab Hardliners

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

The current situation has intensified the voices of hardliners against the U.S. and Israel, causing turmoil in the Middle East. According to Al Jazeera, Faisal bin Farhan, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister, stated at an emergency virtual meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the largest Islamic international organization, on the 16th, "We condemn Israel’s blatant invasion of Palestine, and the international community must take urgent measures to end Israel’s military operations in the Gaza Strip."

Arab League countries such as Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which normalized relations with Israel last year under the Trump administration, also issued statements condemning Israel in line with Saudi Arabia’s position as the leading country of the League. As the entire Islamic world begins to criticize Israel, there are concerns that pro-American regimes in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, may find it difficult to continue normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel.

The Iran nuclear deal restoration negotiations, which President Biden has been focusing on, are also expected to be severely impacted.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, in a call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an on the same day, stated that Islamic countries must unite to stop Israel’s airstrikes killing Palestinian residents. Rouhani’s remarks, as a moderate figure toward the U.S., are interpreted as reflecting the influence of hardliners in Iran’s parliament and political circles. Ahead of the June presidential election, Iran’s political sphere is attempting to halt International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities through recent ‘anti-sanctions laws,’ and the Iran nuclear deal negotiations have stalled.

The leading candidate to succeed Rouhani is widely expected to be Ebrahim Raisi, head of the judiciary and a close aide to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Raisi ran against Rouhani in the 2017 presidential election and is considered a key figure among hardline conservatives.

According to CNN, Iran has long supported Hamas, the armed faction in the Gaza Strip engaged in conflict with Israel, and this conflict is expected to further strengthen the position of hardliners in Iran.

◇ U.S. Cornered in the International Community

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

China and Russia, which have long faced strong criticism from the U.S. over human rights issues, have launched counterattacks amid the current situation.

At the United Nations Security Council’s virtual public meeting held on the 16th, the Chinese government, along with Tunisia and Norway, issued a joint statement calling for Israel to cease attacks on Palestine and pressured the U.S. to support the statement.

Earlier, on the 13th, Russian President Vladimir Putin met virtually with UN Secretary-General Ant?nio Guterres and referenced UN Security Council resolutions and international law norms related to the Palestinian issue, emphasizing that "the main task is to stop violence on both sides and ensure the safety of civilians."

China, which has faced U.S. pressure over human rights issues such as the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region and the Hong Kong National Security Law, and Russia, criticized over the Ukraine border conflict, have seized an opportunity to counterattack, raising concerns that the U.S.’s cooperation with allies to contain China and Russia may face difficulties.

◇ Europe Worried About Refugee Crisis

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Solidarity rallies for Palestine are being held across major European cities such as London, Paris, Madrid, and Berlin. On the 15th, in London, protesters led by the Labour Party shouted "Free Palestine" in a large demonstration in front of the Israeli embassy. Similar pro-Palestinian rallies, large and small, took place in Paris, Madrid, Berlin, and other cities.

According to The Guardian, a major reason for the large-scale pro-Palestinian rallies in Europe is not only human rights concerns but also fears of a massive refugee crisis resulting from the bilateral conflict. Since the Syrian civil war in 2015, over one million Middle Eastern refugees have arrived in Europe, according to the European Union (EU). In exchange for accepting refugees, the EU pledged €700 million (approximately 963 billion KRW) and military support to Greece in March last year, but thousands of Middle Eastern refugees continue to flood into southern European countries along the Mediterranean coast, such as Spain and Italy, daily. The surge in refugees has raised concerns about public safety, economic downturn, and the resurgence of COVID-19.

With fears that the Palestinian conflict could trigger a large-scale refugee crisis in Palestine, which has recently shown relative stability following Syria and Iraq, European countries are closely monitoring the situation.