North Korea at a Crossroads... Provocation or Dialogue?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] As the Biden administration attempts to contact North Korea to convey its new North Korea policy, North Korea's silence is growing longer. Attention is focused on whether North Korea will complete its exploration and step into the diplomatic and dialogue arena in light of the South Korea-US summit.

As of the 16th, five days before the South Korea-US summit scheduled for the 21st (local time), North Korea has not given a clear response to the US's contact attempts.

North Korea is only known to have responded with "well received" to the US proposal to explain the review of the North Korea policy. The US State Department stated on the 14th (local time) regarding North Korea's response to the US contact attempt, "We will not disclose any confidential diplomatic communications."

It has also not issued any external messages for nearly two weeks. The most recent external message was a series of statements issued on the 2nd by Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the Workers' Party, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry's US Affairs department, expressing intentions to "take corresponding measures" regarding North Korean leaflets, US human rights criticisms, and North Korea policy.

North Korea is likely to monitor the political situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula until the results of the South Korea-US summit are announced. On the 7th, Minister of Unification Lee In-young appeared on CBS Radio's 'Kim Hyun-jung's News Show' and said, "It can be evaluated that they are starting a full-scale exploration," describing North Korea's refusal of US contact as a 'push and pull' tactic. He also viewed it as a kind of exploration through a 'show of strength' ahead of the South Korea-US summit.

However, North Korea is firmly adhering to the 'strong against strong, preemptive against preemptive' principle, and the US also appears unwilling to concede on North Korea's human rights issues. The US State Department stated in a briefing after the release of the '2020 International Religious Freedom Report' that it will address the North Korean nuclear issue and human rights issues simultaneously and will not compromise on either. North Korea defines the US's human rights criticisms as a 'hostile policy,' so if the US continues to raise human rights issues, North Korea may refuse dialogue.

It is also possible that North Korea may provoke ahead of the South Korea-US summit. The 'corresponding measures' previously announced by Deputy Director Kim could include the dismantling of the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland (Choguk Pyonghwa Tongil Wiwonhoe), which symbolizes inter-Korean exchanges, the disbandment of the Mount Kumgang International Tourism Bureau, or even the annulment of the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement. However, Minister Lee predicted, "The possibility of North Korean provocations immediately before the South Korea-US summit is low."