'Korean Numerical Weather Prediction Model' Typhoon Path Forecasting Is Inadequate... Heatwave Accuracy Improved

Korean Numerical Weather Prediction Model Introduced in April Last Year
Typhoon Track Less Accurate Than UK Model but Superior in Intensity Forecast
Performance Improvement Expected with Supercomputer 5 Operation Starting June

[Asia Economy Reporter Han Jinju] The Korea Meteorological Administration's (KMA) weather forecasting software developed with domestic technology, the Korean Integrated Model (KIM), has reached its first anniversary of operation. Compared to the previously used British model, its typhoon track prediction was somewhat less accurate, but the intensity prediction was relatively precise, and its accuracy in forecasting temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius was higher than that of the British model.

On the 6th, the KMA announced the achievements and future plans following the introduction of the Korean Integrated Model (KIM). The KMA stated, "By 2023, we aim to secure top-tier performance among countries possessing their own models by continuously incorporating observational data and improving precipitation processes and land-atmosphere interactions in the numerical model to enhance forecasting performance."

The KMA developed the Korean Integrated Model over nine years starting in 2011 and has been utilizing and operating it for weather forecast production since April 28 of last year. Numerical weather prediction models are software that calculate the state and movement of the atmosphere using supercomputers to predict future weather. The Korean model operates uninterruptedly four times a day and can predict weather not only in Korea but also globally, including areas with scarce observational data such as oceans, mountainous regions, and the upper atmosphere.

Since April last year, Korea has been producing weather forecasts using the Korean model alongside the British Unified Model. Before developing the Korean model, Korea used the British Unified Model (UM), ranked second worldwide, but it had the drawback of not responding sensitively to the Korean Peninsula's terrain and climate. In response, the KMA developed its own numerical weather prediction model that reflects meteorological and climate environmental changes and can promptly address issues. Globally, nine countries including Korea, Germany, Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, China, Canada, and France possess their own numerical weather prediction models.

The predictive performance of the Korean model was on par with the British Unified Model. In the case of typhoons, track prediction was somewhat less accurate, but intensity prediction was excellent. For the three typhoons (Nos. 8 to 10) that affected the Korean Peninsula last summer, the track error was 110 to 180 km for Korea, larger than the British model's 110 to 150 km. Regarding intensity error, Korea's was within 4 hPa, smaller than the British model's 16 to 20 hPa.

The accuracy of predicting temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius was higher than that of the British model. The average precipitation forecast accuracy during the monsoon period was similar to that of the British model. Based on 12-hour accumulated precipitation, accuracy was 0.6 for Korea versus 0.68 for Britain, and the hit rate was 0.84 for Korea versus 0.80 for Britain, showing comparable results.

Starting from June, the fifth supercomputer, which is about eight times faster than the current one, is scheduled to be fully operational, enabling various tests using the Korean model and accelerating performance improvements.

Furthermore, work has begun on developing a next-generation numerical weather prediction model capable of simultaneously forecasting localized hazardous weather phenomena and global abnormal weather events.

Park Kwang-seok, Administrator of the KMA, said, "Through the Korean Integrated Model, we are realizing the dream of meteorological technology independence, entering the ranks of advanced meteorological countries, and transitioning from a beneficiary to a supporter in the meteorological field." He added, "We will do our utmost to provide high-quality meteorological services using our domestically developed numerical weather prediction model to ensure public safety and enhance convenience in daily life."