[AKYUNG Poll] Lee Jae-yong and Two Former Presidents' Pardons Viewed Differently by the Public

Support for Pardon: Lee Jae-yong 69.5%, Two Former Presidents 42.8% Show Clear Temperature Gap

Vice Chairman Lee's Mitigating Circumstances... Less Ideological and Factional Logic Applied to Corporate Leaders

Lee Jae-yong, Vice Chairman of Samsung Electronics

[Asia Economy Reporters Hyunju Lee, Suyeon Woo, Boryeong Geum] Public opinion reacted very differently to the two issues of pardoning two former presidents and Samsung Electronics Vice Chairman Lee Jae-yong. Experts analyzed that unlike the cases of former presidents Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye, who were imprisoned due to political incidents, the perspective on pardoning a corporate leader and its effects involves relatively less partisan logic. Political commentator Jonghoon Lee said, "In our country's situation, if the president requests it, how many major corporate leaders would flatly refuse?" He analyzed that public opinion sees some degree of 'mitigating circumstances' as Lee Jae-yong gave bribes under the demand of former President Park. The commentator also said, "When weighing the severity, the side that demanded money is more at fault, and there is consideration that the other side reluctantly complied."

As the economy worsened due to the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, the role of large corporations has emerged, which is also interpreted as influencing the favorable public opinion toward Lee Jae-yong's pardon. In the business community, five economic organizations, centered on the Korea Employers Federation, submitted a petition for Lee's pardon to the Blue House on the 27th. The business sector requested the pardon on the grounds that a representative who will take responsibility for and lead Korea's semiconductor industry is needed. The pardon movement for Lee, which started in the business community, is recently spreading to religious circles, political circles, and other social groups.

With the upcoming Korea-US summit next month, the role of Lee Jae-yong is expected to become even more prominent. As the global semiconductor supply shortage intensifies, there is even talk of a 'vaccine swap' at the Korea-US summit, exchanging semiconductor investments for vaccines. Voices are growing that Lee is the right person for this role. Jang Sung-chul, director of the Sympathy and Debate Policy Center, said, "It is wrong that Samsung committed illegal acts during the management succession process, but there is clearly a perspective that Samsung should step up to overcome difficulties," adding, "Lee's absence is also causing a sense of crisis and fear about the economy." Professor Shinyul of Myongji University's Department of Political Science and Diplomacy interpreted, "The fact that citizens feel the necessity of Samsung a lot means, conversely, that Samsung can fill the gap where the government fails to provide trust."

Meanwhile, President Moon Jae-in, who holds the key to the pardon decision, said on the 21st in response to Busan Mayor Park Hyung-joon's request for pardoning former presidents, "This issue cannot ignore the public consensus and must act to help national unity. Both must be considered together." Although this was not a statement about Lee Jae-yong's pardon, the same logic is expected to apply. Article 3 of the Pardon Act defines the special pardon target as 'those who have been sentenced.' Former President Lee was sentenced to 17 years in prison, former President Park to 22 years, and Lee Jae-yong to 2 years and 6 months, so all are included in the special pardon target.

◆Public Support for Pardons... Lee Jae-yong 69.4%, Former Presidents 42.8%= In the Asia Economy poll, public opinion on pardoning the two former presidents was closely contested within the margin of error. Support was 42.8%, opposition 47.4%, and unsure 9.8%. Support for pardons increased with age. By political party support, among Democratic Party supporters, the support-to-opposition ratio was 14.4% to 79.6%. Among People Power Party supporters, it was the exact opposite at 73.6% to 18.4%. This clearly correlated with presidential approval ratings. Among those who support President Moon, 17.8% supported pardons and 75.1% opposed, but among those who do not support him, 67.3% supported and 22.3% opposed.

Public opinion on Lee Jae-yong's pardon showed a similar trend but somewhat different figures. Overall, support was 69.4% and opposition 23.2%, with support increasing with age. The age group with the lowest support was 18-29 years old, but even there, support was 59.0%, exceeding the majority. Among Democratic Party supporters alone, 47.5% supported Lee's pardon. Considering that only 14.4% supported pardoning the former presidents, this shows less resistance to Lee's pardon.

◆How the survey was conducted= This survey was conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting targeting nationwide voters aged 18 and older on the 24th and 25th, with an overall response rate of 9.6% and 1,008 respondents. The survey method was 100% mobile ARS using virtual phone numbers. The sample was extracted with weighting by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.