Three Leading Presidential Candidates... Will Jeong Sye-gyun vs Lee Nak-yeon Engage in a Fierce Battle for Second Place in Yeouido Comeback?

Jeong Sye-gyun Officially Enters Presidential Race... Three-Way Contest Within Party Against Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon

[Asia Economy Reporter Oh Ju-yeon] With the return of former Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun to the political arena following the cabinet reshuffle on the 16th, the ruling party's presidential race is expanding from a two-way contest between Lee Jae-myung and Lee Nak-yeon to a three-way battle. It is expected that the leading contenders, including former Prime Minister Chung, will begin their full-fledged activities. The key issue is how much former Prime Minister Chung, who has entered the race as a latecomer, can assert his presence within the party amid Lee Jae-myung's dominant position.

Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun, having completed his farewell ceremony, waves his hand as he leaves the Government Seoul Office Building on the 16th. Photo by Moon Ho-nam munonam@

◆Chung Sye-kyun's Advantage: Rich Experience in State Administration... Keen Attention on Poll Changes After Resigning as Prime Minister

Former Prime Minister Chung, a six-term member of the National Assembly, has the advantage of extensive experience in state administration, having served as Minister of Industry, Party Leader, and Speaker of the National Assembly. In the 21st National Assembly, he has expanded his influence by participating in the study group 'Gwanghwamun Forum,' mainly composed of lawmakers considered part of the 'Chung Sye-kyun (SK) faction.'

Professor Park Sang-byeong of Inha University analyzed, "The greatest strength of former Prime Minister Chung is that he is the only candidate within the party who can challenge Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung." He added, "He is garnering support not only from the hardline pro-Moon faction but also from the broader pro-Moon group, which means his support base is solid, distinguishing him from other candidates." Accordingly, there is a forecast that the current one-strong dominance centered on Governor Lee will be reorganized into a two-strong competition between Lee Jae-myung and Chung Sye-kyun.

◆Lee Nak-yeon, Trailing in Polls, Resumes Activities After Quarantine

On the other hand, former Party Leader Lee Nak-yeon's position has somewhat weakened since the April 7 by-elections. This is because he cannot avoid responsibility as party leader for losing both the Seoul and Busan mayoral seats to the opposition. The fact that he is significantly behind the top two candidates in recent presidential preference polls reflects this situation.

According to the 'Next Political Leader Preference' survey released by Gallup Korea on the 16th, former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-youl (25%) and Governor Lee (24%) are leading, while former Party Leader Lee ranks third with around 5%. Not only is he trailing in the 'two-strong' competition, but his declining support rate is also a challenge he must overcome. In the first week of April (March 30?April 1), before the election, Lee's support rate was 7%, but in the recent survey, it dropped by 2 percentage points to the 5% range. During the same period, former Prosecutor General Yoon and Governor Lee were tied at 23%.

Gallup's analysis indicates that until July last year, former Party Leader Lee was the clear frontrunner with a preference rate in the mid-20% range. However, in August of the same year, Governor Lee surged, forming a leading competition among ruling party figures, and in March this year, former Prosecutor General Yoon's rapid rise created a new leading group. After completing his COVID-19 self-quarantine on the 15th, former Party Leader Lee stated, "I will devote all my efforts to helping the Democratic Party regain the public's trust through reflection and reform," and resumed his activities.

Lee Nak-yeon, the Standing Election Committee Chairman of the Democratic Party of Korea, is holding a press conference to encourage voting for the April 7 by-elections at the National Assembly on the 7th. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

◆'Category Rule'... Lee Nak-yeon and Chung Sye-kyun Compete for Second Place in Party Primary

The lack of significant differentiation between former Party Leader Lee and former Prime Minister Chung could be both an advantage and a disadvantage for each other in the upcoming presidential race. Former Prime Minister Chung hails from Jinan, Jeonbuk, while former Party Leader Lee is from Yeonggwang, Jeonnam, so their regional backgrounds overlap, and their images of stability are similar. According to the 'category rule,' where competition intensifies in similar domains, votes may be split.

Former Prime Minister Chung's first performance as a presidential candidate after resigning as prime minister will be reflected in the Realmeter opinion poll scheduled for the 19th. Attention is focused on the possibility of achieving '5%.' Since this will be the first poll conducted after his resignation, a rapid surge in support is unlikely, but according to polling officials, a support rate in the mid-single digits, around 5%, is considered a benchmark for confirming his presence.

In the aforementioned Gallup Korea survey, former Prime Minister Chung's support rate was 1% (conducted April 13?15, nationwide among 1,005 adults aged 18 and over, with a margin of error of ±3.1% at a 95% confidence level), but it is expected that his support rate will trend upward as he begins full-scale activities as a presidential candidate.

RealMeter Senior Researcher Bae Cheol-ho predicted, "Former Prime Minister Chung's support rate has not matched his weight, but there is room for change following his resignation." Until now, he was constrained in expressing his own colors while overseeing COVID-19 prevention and managing state affairs, but going forward, he will have more opportunities to actively address current issues and present his vision as a presidential candidate, making a rebound in support possible. Researcher Bae added, "As the immediate past prime minister, he can provide the most thorough solutions to current issues, which will differentiate him from other candidates." However, Professor Choi Chang-ryeol of Yongin University noted, "It would have been perfect if he had also achieved results in COVID-19 prevention, but that is a regret."