[AKY News Poll] The Growing Ossehun Surge... A New Obstacle(?) in Opposition Candidate Unification

Ahn Cheol-soo 49.2% > Park Young-sun 38.8%
Consolidation of support from both camps compared to January survey
Oh Se-hoon 49.3% > Park Young-sun 39.5%
Oh Se-hoon shows moderate expansion effect after primary comeback
"Growing expectation that victory is possible even without Ahn Cheol-soo"
In case of failed unification and three-way race, Park Young-sun relatively advantageous

[Asia Economy reporters Naju-seok and Geum Bo-ryeong] With generally unfavorable issues for the ruling party emerging one after another, such as former Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol's resignation and the land speculation scandal involving employees of Korea Land and Housing Corporation (LH), the Seoul mayoral by-election race is also plunging into confusion. In a recent weekend opinion poll reflecting the impact of these two issues to some extent, the expected head-to-head contest between the ruling and opposition candidates showed an advantage for the opposition. Whether the single candidate is Ahn Cheol-soo of the People’s Party or Oh Se-hoon of the People Power Party, both showed a lead beyond the margin of error against Park Young-sun, the Democratic Party’s Seoul mayoral candidate. However, if the unification fails and a three-way race unfolds, Park still maintains a relative advantage.

According to an opinion poll conducted by WinG Korea Consulting on behalf of Asia Economy from January 6 to 7, surveying 1,002 Seoul residents, in a hypothetical one-on-one contest between Ahn and Park, Ahn’s support rate was 49.2%, leading Park’s 38.8% by 10.4 percentage points. Compared to a similar poll conducted by Asia Economy and WinG Korea Consulting on January 2 to 3 with 1,006 respondents (sampling error ±3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level, using 100% mobile phone virtual number ARS method), Ahn’s support rose by 1.8 percentage points from 47.4%, and Park’s support also increased by 1.8 percentage points from 37.0%, showing consolidation of support on both sides.

Oh also showed a lead over Park in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup. Oh’s support rate was 49.3%, ahead of Park’s 39.5% by 9.8 percentage points. Compared to the January 2 to 3 Asia Economy poll, Oh’s support increased by 5.4 percentage points, while Park’s rose only by 0.8 percentage points. This suggests that Oh benefited from the convention effect and consolidation of People Power Party supporters after winning the party’s Seoul mayoral primary.

For now, Ahn maintains the existing trend of having higher competitiveness than Oh, his unification rival. However, with Oh’s competitiveness confirmed to have significantly increased after the primary, the unification process is expected to become more intense. When asked who is the more suitable single candidate for the conservative opposition in the Seoul mayoral race, Ahn (33.3%) and Oh (32.6%) showed a narrow gap of 0.7 percentage points, indicating a close contest within the margin of error. Notably, 52.5% of People Power Party-leaning voters support their party’s Oh, but 41.8% still support Ahn. Among People’s Party-leaning voters, 59% expressed support for Ahn, while 34.2% supported Oh. This suggests that beyond consolidation within support bases, shifts in the fluid public sentiment could lead to changes in the race dynamics.

Ahn and Oh have agreed to begin practical negotiations for unifying the opposition candidates. While the unification method is still under discussion, Ahn prefers a ‘competitiveness’ survey asking which candidate shows superiority, whereas the People Power Party favors a ‘suitability’ survey asking who is more appropriate as the opposition candidate, making rule agreement potentially difficult. Both sides will form working-level negotiation teams and start formal talks from the 9th.

Ahn Cheol-soo, the People's Party candidate for Seoul mayor, and Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party candidate for Seoul mayor, are attending the March 8 International Women's Day event held at the Air Force Hotel in Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, and exchanging greetings. Photo by National Assembly Press Photographers Group

Um Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, analyzed, “There is growing expectation that whichever candidate is unified, the opposition will win. Opposition supporters may psychologically regard Oh, who has a relatively clear identity, as ‘our candidate’ rather than Ahn, whose identity is ambiguous. While centrist appeal was a key weapon seemingly exclusive to Ahn, Oh’s comeback victory in the primary has split even that centrist appeal.”

Meanwhile, if unification fails and both Ahn and Oh run in the Seoul mayoral election, Park is expected to benefit from a windfall effect. Park was surveyed at 30.3%, slightly ahead of Oh (27.9%) and Ahn (24.7%) within the margin of error. Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon said, “Kim Jong-in, the emergency committee chairman of the People Power Party, favors going all the way even in a three-way race, and Oh may also believe he can win in a three-way race if his support rises and confidence grows,” expressing that it is difficult to predict the outcome of unification talks.

▶This survey was conducted from January 6 to 7 among 1,002 men and women aged 18 or older residing in Seoul, using 100% mobile phone virtual number ARS method. The sample was based on the resident registration population statistics from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of late January, with weighting by gender, age, and region (cell weighting). The response rate was 8.3%, and the sampling error was ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey methodology, refer to the WinG Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.