[Professor Hwang Jae-ho's Diplomatic Odyssey] Jeong Se-hyun, Former Minister: "The US Should Not Let China Take North Korea"

Jeong Se-hyun, Senior Vice Chairman of the National Unification Advisory Council, and Hwang Jae-ho, professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, are having a conversation on the 24th at the National Unification Advisory Council in Jung-gu, Seoul. Photo by Moon Ho-nam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho]

The 'Big 2' of the United States and China are engaged in an intense battle for global supremacy. The US and China are competing fiercely not only in military matters but also on issues such as the economy and human rights.

In the midst of the Big 2, South Korea's diplomacy must find an even more balanced point. North Korea is not giving up its nuclear weapons. Japan is in conflict with us over historical issues and the Dokdo dispute. This is why a sophisticated policy toward North Korea and Japan is necessary.

Accordingly, Asia Economy seeks to explore insights on Korean Peninsula policy through domestic and international diplomatic experts and scholars. Professor Hwang Jae-ho, an expert on Korean Peninsula policy and a contributor to Asia Economy, will hold weekly dialogues with diplomatic experts and scholars under the title "Professor Hwang Jae-ho's Diplomatic Odyssey."

1. 'Sage of the Korean Peninsula' Jeong Se-hyun, Senior Vice Chairman of the National Unification Advisory Council

Interview / Professor Hwang Jae-ho, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies

Professor Hwang Jae-ho of the International Studies Department at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies serves as a member of the Presidential Policy Planning Committee and director of the Global Strategy Cooperation Institute. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the London School of Economics (LSE).

- We are beginning the first Diplomatic Odyssey with Senior Vice Chairman Jeong Se-hyun, known as the 'Sage of the Korean Peninsula.' Thank you for joining us on this first journey to explore the direction of Korean diplomacy. Many may not know that academically, you specialize in Chinese diplomacy. In this dialogue, we would like to ask about North Korea issues from the perspective of changes in the international order and diplomacy.

▲ Although many know me as a North Korea specialist since I have dealt with unification issues since 1977, my academic specialty has been China since my master's degree. My doctoral dissertation was "A Study on China's Foreign Outlook: Focusing on the Concept of Friend and Enemy."

- In 2019, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said, "The international order is at the beginning of a new Cold War." Are US-China relations 'friends' or 'enemies'?

▲ They are certainly not 'friends,' but not completely 'enemies' either. During the Cold War, US-Soviet relations were a zero-sum game, but China's view of the US now is more of a win-win concept. Moreover, China has a plan to maintain cooperation until its power surpasses that of the US. Given the current international order with high economic interdependence between the US and China, a relationship like the Cold War US-Soviet one, where they cut each other like a knife and a sword, cannot be formed.

- Nevertheless, it seems China wants to change the Northeast Asian order, while the US wants to maintain regional hegemony.

▲ In 2010, former Secretary Kissinger said, "The US is becoming a declining power, and China is a rising power." From Trump to the current President Joe Biden, the US has continuously tried to block China's rise.

However, personally, I think it will be difficult to succeed. This is not because China is special, but because the US's economic growth has reached its limits and it is struggling to create national interests through trade. As the saying goes, 'wealthy country, strong army,' economic growth usually correlates with military growth. While China's economy grew more than 4% even during the COVID-19 crisis, the US did not. Since the US alone cannot contain China, the Biden administration emphasizes alliances unusually strongly.

- Then what measures should the US take to block China's rise?

▲ A major problem in US China policy is overconfidence in its own capabilities rather than 'knowing the enemy and knowing oneself,' as stated in Sun Tzu's Art of War. The Indo-Pacific strategy is just a 21st-century version of the US's past containment policy against the Soviet Union. The US needs to study China and find its vulnerabilities. The US should shift to a policy of managing China and compromise to some extent by recognizing China's influence.

- Please explain more about China's vulnerabilities and US management of China.

▲ It is like the strategy in the Romance of the Three Kingdoms called jang-gye-chwi-gye (將計就計), which means anticipating and turning the opponent's strategy against them. For example, in the current situation where China and North Korea are backing each other against the US, the US should accept South Korea's proposal to start negotiations on a declaration to end the war and a peace treaty, leading North Korea toward denuclearization.

The US must quickly improve relations with North Korea, and the moment the US embassy is established in Pyongyang, the US's hegemony in Northeast Asia will actually increase. However, if the US continues to pressure China through its allies as it does now, China will instead join hands with North Korea to oppose the US. In that case, the US's hegemony in Northeast Asia will weaken accordingly.

- But the US seems to think that North Korea will not endure long if pressured continuously over nuclear issues.

▲ The US has no experience of being invaded by a great power, so it seems unaware of how strong the resistance of nationalism in a small country can be. On the contrary, the Korean people have long suffered from foreign powers. If the US only pressures North Korea as it does now, North Korea will never yield.

The US should remember that in the Vietnam War, it was not Vietnam that surrendered but the US that eventually withdrew. This happened because the US did not understand the resilience of Vietnamese nationalism.

- What should the US learn from the painful experience of the Vietnam War?

▲ Above all, I want the US to listen carefully to the advice not to 'lose' North Korea to China. North Korea held the Workers' Party Congress in January this year and the plenary session of the Central Committee in February. Looking at personnel changes during this process, a notable point is that pro-US members disappeared from the Political Bureau and its candidate members. This sends a message from North Korea that pro-US figures are useless for the time being. In recent years, North Korea has grown tired of the US's changing words and has low expectations for negotiations. Therefore, they elected hardline pro-South Korea official Ri Son-gwon as a Political Bureau member and China expert Kim Sung-nam as a candidate member. This signals that North Korea will pressure the US through the development of North Korea-China relations.

- What about our government's policy toward North Korea?

▲ The direction is properly set, but US cooperation is crucial. During the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration and the September 19 Pyongyang Joint Declaration, the US felt sidelined. As a result, the rapidly progressing Korean Peninsula peace process stalled from November 2018 under US control through the US-ROK working group.

- How do you see current issues such as ROK-US joint military exercises, wartime operational control, and the UN Command?

▲ To proactively lead improvements in inter-Korean and North Korea-US relations, the government should have officially announced this year that it would not conduct the ROK-US joint military exercises. Regarding operational control, as the US pursues a China containment policy, the role of US Forces Korea is becoming more important. Therefore, the US is setting a new condition called Full Operational Capability (FOC) for the transfer of wartime operational control. This will likely take quite some time. If the armistice agreement is converted into a peace treaty, the UN Command, which managed the armistice, should legally be dissolved, but this does not mean the withdrawal of US Forces Korea.

- Korean diplomacy is often compared to a shrimp caught between whales or a dolphin performing tricks.

▲ South Korea, with the status of a middle power ranked 10th economically and 6th militarily worldwide, is definitely no longer a shrimp. But it is not a dolphin either. Swimming skillfully among whales is exhausting. Former President Kim Dae-jung once compared Korea to an ox walking in a ditch. The ox walks slowly and calmly, grazing on grass on both sides of the ditch to gain strength. Similarly, we must conduct diplomacy between the two countries, the US and China, in this way.

- Any suggestions for the current government's diplomatic policy direction?

▲ Hwang Jae-ok, policy chairman of the National Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation, recently argued in a media article that our government needs to practice 'Diplomatic Distancing' in its relationship with the US. As someone who has always emphasized the 'self-centeredness' of our diplomacy, I strongly agree. For example, the US demands South Korea's participation in Quad Plus, but if that happens, China is likely to impose economic sanctions on South Korea. Therefore, we must respond cautiously to US demands. Even if we prioritize diplomatic distancing and self-centeredness, the US cannot easily discard South Korea because Korea is a key link in the US's East Asia strategy.

- Finally, if you were to describe yourself in one word, what would it be?

▲ In April 1998, after spending more than a week in Beijing for inter-Korean fertilizer talks, many people said on the news that they thought I was a 'North Korean representative.' Probably because my appearance seemed strong and stern. When I was appointed Vice Minister of Unification, an article nicknamed me the 'Unification Ministry Tank.' I tend to push forward quickly once I start work, so the ministry staff whispered that I was like a tank. But in fact, contrary to my appearance, I am 'strong outside, soft inside' (外剛內柔), a man with a gentle heart.

◆ Jeong Se-hyun

Graduated from Seoul National University with a degree in Diplomacy and earned a Ph.D. in Political Science from the same university. He served as a research officer on communist countries at the Ministry of Unification, head of the Inter-Korean Dialogue Department, presidential unification secretary, president of the Korea Institute for National Unification, vice minister of unification, and twice as Minister of Unification (29th and 30th). He has been the representative standing chairman of the National Council for Reconciliation and Cooperation and chairman of the Korean Peninsula Peace Forum, and since 2019 has served as senior vice chairman of the National Unification Advisory Council.