The Eye of the Storm in the April 7 Seoul Mayoral By-election is Ahn Cheol-soo

Election Landscape Changes Depending on Opposition Unity Success
Ahn Cheol-soo Leads Opposition but Oh Se-hoon Promises Fierce Pursuit

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] It is difficult to gauge the outcome of the Seoul mayoral election without an answer to the question, "Is it Ahn Cheol-soo or not?" If the opposition nominates a single candidate between Ahn Cheol-soo and Oh Se-hoon, a one-on-one contest with the ruling party candidate will be established, leading to a genuine showdown. On the other hand, if the unification fails and a three-way race ensues, many predict that the ruling party will have the advantage.

Ultimately, although their positions differ, both the People Power Party and the People’s Party agree on the inevitability of unification. Both candidate Ahn and candidate Oh stated that unification was their first priority after winning the primary. However, as differences in perspectives regarding the unification method have been confirmed between the two sides, attention is focused on whether a breakthrough can be made by the candidate registration deadline on the 18th.

Since declaring his candidacy as the unified opposition candidate for Seoul mayor last December, candidate Ahn has played a pivotal role in shaping the election landscape. In a poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting on November 1-2 last year, surveying 1,000 adult men and women residing in Seoul about the suitability of opposition candidates for Seoul mayor (95% confidence level with ±3.1 percentage points margin of error, 100% mobile phone virtual number method via wireless ARS), candidate Ahn ranked second with 15.9%, following candidate Oh with 17.6%. However, after his candidacy announcement in December, his support rate surged sharply. In a poll conducted on January 2-3 this year by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting surveying 1,006 adults residing in Seoul about the suitability of opposition candidates for Seoul mayor (95% confidence level with ±3.1 percentage points margin of error, 100% mobile phone virtual number method via wireless ARS), candidate Ahn led with 28.5%, more than twice the support of other candidates (poll details can be found on the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website).

However, with candidate Oh confirmed as the official candidate of the People Power Party, there remains the possibility of consolidation among People Power Party supporters. This subtle shift is already evident in big data such as Google Trends. From the first day of the new year until now, candidate Ahn’s Google Trends index was 41, surpassing candidate Oh (12) and Park Young-sun, the Democratic Party candidate (37). But looking at the trend over the past week, the gap has narrowed with candidate Ahn (10), candidate Park (10), and candidate Oh (7).