Moody's Raises G20 Economic Growth Forecast to 5.3% This Year... South Korea Maintains 3.1%

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Jae-hee] Global credit rating agency Moody's has forecast the economic growth rate of the Group of Twenty (G20) major economies at 5.3% this year.

According to a report published by Moody's on the 24th, the G20 economic growth rate was newly revised upward to 5.3%, up 0.4 percentage points from the November forecast of 4.9% last year.

Next year's growth rate was also revised upward from 3.8% to 4.5%.

Moody's predicted, "Most countries' growth will not return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels until 2022."

Moody's maintained the growth rate for the 10 advanced countries, including South Korea, at 4.2% this year, while significantly raising next year's growth rate from 3.2% to 4.2%.

South Korea's growth rates for this year and next year were maintained at the previous November forecast of 3.1% and 2.8%, respectively.

Among advanced countries, only the United States raised its forecast for this year from 4.2% to 4.7%. The forecast for next year was also sharply raised from 3.9% to 5.0%.

Moody's expected, "With stimulus measures, the United States will lead the recovery of global service demand this year and next year."

Japan's growth rate for this year was maintained at 3.2%, while Europe's was sharply lowered from 4.7% to 3.7%.

Germany (3.8%→3.0%), the United Kingdom (5.2%→4.7%), France (5.3%→4.8%), and Italy (5.6%→3.7%) were also consecutively revised downward.

However, Europe's growth rate for next year was raised from 3.0% to 3.9%. Germany (2.0%→4.0%), the United Kingdom (3.6%→4.8%), France (3.5%→4.0%), and Italy (3.5%→4.1%) were also revised upward.

For the 10 emerging countries, Moody's forecast this year's growth rate to reach 7.0%, up 0.9% from the November forecast of 6.1%. The forecast for next year was maintained at 4.7%.

China is expected to grow by 7.5% (November 7.0%), and India is expected to grow significantly by 13.9% (November 8.6%).

Moody's explained, "Both this year and next year, the G20 will show economic growth, but the recovery speed will vary significantly," adding, "This is because the COVID-19 shock revealed differences among countries in political leadership, healthcare management systems, and monetary and fiscal policy responses."