[AKYUNG Poll] Park Hyung-jun Leads in Multi- and Two-Candidate Races for Busan Mayor Without Reversal

Park-Kim Virtual Matchup Shows 15.5%P Lead
Kim Receives Broad Support Across Generations Except 3040

[Asia Economy Reporters Naju-seok and Jeon Jin-young] In the virtual contest for the April 7 Busan mayoral by-election, Park Hyung-jun, the preliminary candidate of the People Power Party, ranked first in both multi-candidate and one-on-one matchups.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting on April 20-21 among 1,018 eligible voters residing in Busan, when asked “Who would you support in a virtual head-to-head contest between Kim Young-choon, the preliminary candidate of the Democratic Party, and Park Hyung-jun, the preliminary candidate of the People Power Party,” 49.5% responded that they support Park, while 34% supported Kim. The difference between the two was 15.4 percentage points.

Comparing the results of this contest with the same survey conducted in the third week of December last year (December 12-13), both Kim and Park showed increased support, indicating a consolidation of their support bases over time. Kim’s support rose from 30.3% to 34%, while Park’s increased from 45.8% to 49.5%.

Generational preferences for the two candidates diverged. In their 30s (41.3%) and 40s (43.7%), a higher proportion supported Kim, but in all other age groups, Park’s support surpassed Kim’s. Notably, in the 60s (65.4%) and 70s (67.2%) age groups, Park enjoyed strong backing.

In a head-to-head matchup between Kim Young-choon and Lee Eon-ju, another preliminary candidate of the People Power Party, Kim led within the margin of error. Compared to the previous survey, this represents a “narrow reversal.” Kim’s support rose by 4.8 percentage points to 42.2%, while Lee’s support fell by 1.2 percentage points to 38.2%.

When asked “Who do you think is most suitable as the next Busan mayor” among all candidates from both parties, Park Hyung-jun received 33.2% support, ranking first. Kim Young-choon followed with 22.2%, and Lee Eon-ju with 10.1%. Next were Byeon Seong-wan (Democratic Party, 6.6%), Park Seong-hoon (People Power Party, 4.7%), Park Min-sik (People Power Party, 3.1%), and Park In-young (Democratic Party, 2.3%). Other figures accounted for 1.1%, while 16.7% responded with none or did not know.

This survey was conducted on April 20-21 among eligible voters aged 18 and older residing in Busan Metropolitan City, with an overall response rate of 11.8%, totaling 1,018 respondents. The survey method was wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers. The sample was extracted with weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of January 2021 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.