7.4 Years Until COVID-19 Normalcy?…Expectations for Accelerated Vaccine Rollout

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] As the total number of COVID-19 vaccine recipients worldwide has surpassed the cumulative number of confirmed cases for the first time, it is projected that the world will only be able to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic and return to normal life after about 7.4 years from now.

Bloomberg News announced on the 4th (local time) that it will calculate and publish daily the time it will take for the world to recover normal life from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Bloomberg uses the point at which the two-dose vaccination rate exceeds 75% as the benchmark for returning to normal life and calculates the recovery period for each country. The 75% vaccination rate is based on the statement by Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), that "if the vaccination rate is between 70% and 85%, it can be considered that normal life has been restored." Based on this criterion, Bloomberg reported that the current calculation shows it will take 7.4 years for the world to recover normal life.

The country expected to recover normal life the fastest is Israel. Israel is projected to reach the 75% two-dose vaccination rate benchmark within two months. The United States, considering the current average of 1.33 million vaccine doses administered daily, is expected to recover normal life in about 11 months. There is no prediction yet for South Korea, which has not started vaccinations.

Bloomberg explained that the current global average daily vaccination rate is 4.54 million doses, and based on this, the recovery period of 7.4 years was calculated. It also emphasized that increasing the number of vaccine doses administered can significantly shorten the recovery time.

Fortunately, with pharmaceutical companies accelerating vaccine development, the time to return to normal life is expected to decrease rapidly.

Johnson & Johnson’s subsidiary Janssen announced on the same day that it has applied to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for emergency use authorization of its vaccine. Unlike existing vaccines that require two doses, the Janssen vaccine requires only one dose. German company BioNTech is also scheduled to apply for COVID-19 vaccine approval from Chinese authorities on the 5th.

According to the international statistics site ‘Our World in Data,’ the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered worldwide has surpassed the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. As of this date, vaccination is underway in about 70 countries worldwide, with a total of 107,344,447 doses administered, exceeding the global cumulative confirmed cases of 105,391,207.

The country with the highest number of vaccine doses administered per capita is Israel (58.6 doses per 100 people). It is followed by the United Arab Emirates (37.0 doses), Seychelles (31.9 doses), the United Kingdom (15.8 doses), Bahrain (11.2 doses), and the United States (10.2 doses).

Richard Hatchett of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) said at an event hosted by the German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina on the 3rd, "The number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered has surpassed the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases," and added, "By mid-year, 565 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines will be distributed worldwide."

CEPI leads COVAX, an international project for joint procurement and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, together with the World Health Organization (WHO) and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. COVAX plans to deliver 337 million doses of vaccines to 145 countries by the first half of this year, covering 3.3% of the global population. South Korea will receive 2,713,800 doses out of this allocation.