[AKYUNG Poll] Park Young-sun Leads Ahn Cheol-soo Within Margin of Error... 'Neck and Neck'

Former Minister of SMEs and Startups Park Young-sun (left) and Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People Party (right)

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] Former Minister of SMEs and Startups Park Young-sun slightly leads Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, within the margin of error, emerging as the most preferred candidate for the next Seoul mayor according to a recent poll. Former Minister Park secured more than twice the support of fellow party candidate Representative Woo Sang-ho, establishing her position as the most prominent candidate within the ruling party.

According to a poll commissioned by Asia Economy and conducted by Win-G Korea Consulting from March 30 to 31 among 1,009 Seoul residents (100% wireless ARS mobile phone virtual numbers), Park Young-sun was deemed the most suitable candidate for the next Seoul mayor with 24.6%, followed by Ahn Cheol-soo at 22.4%. Former Representative Na Kyung-won received 16.0%, former Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon 11.2%, Representative Woo Sang-ho 10.7%, and former Representative Geum Tae-seop 2.6%.

Party support was as follows: Democratic Party 33.7%, People Power Party 27.0%, People’s Party 7.3%, Open Democratic Party 5.6%, and Justice Party 4.9%. The proportion of non-affiliated voters was 18.5%. Compared to the same survey conducted earlier last month among Seoul citizens, the Democratic Party’s support rose by 1 percentage point, while the People Power Party’s support slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points. Regarding President Moon Jae-in, 46.8% responded that they support him, while 49.3% said they do not.

Considering party support, Ahn Cheol-soo’s backing appears to be a mix of progressive, conservative, and moderate voters. Even if the conservative opposition unifies, the combined support for each candidate may be lower than the sum of their individual support rates.

When asked about suitability among only Democratic Party candidates, former Minister Park Young-sun led significantly with 32.6%, compared to Representative Woo Sang-ho’s 16.1%. Among Democratic Party supporters alone, Park’s support was 59.0%, while Woo’s was 26.1%, widening the gap further.

When asked about suitability among only People Power Party candidates, former Mayor Oh Se-hoon (23.8%) and former Representative Na Kyung-won (23.2%) were neck and neck. They were followed by Seocho District Mayor Cho Eun-hee (8.1%), former Representative Oh Shin-hwan (4.8%), Professor Kim Geun-sik of Kyungnam University (2.7%), former Representative Kim Seon-dong (2.4%), former Representative Lee Jong-gu (2.0%), and Honorary Chairman of the Korea Foreign-Invested Companies Association Lee Seung-hyun (1.5%).

Regarding the possibility of opposition unification between Ahn Cheol-soo and People Power Party candidates, 47.5% responded that ‘unification will not happen,’ which was higher than the 36.1% who said ‘unification will happen.’ Given the ongoing differences in positions, the public opinion is pessimistic about unification.

On compensation for losses suffered by self-employed businesses due to COVID-19 business restrictions, 41.5% favored ‘limited compensation only for fixed costs such as rent and taxes.’ ‘Active compensation based on sales and profit losses’ was supported by 25.3%, while 25.8% felt that ‘additional compensation is excessive since disaster relief funds have already been provided.’ Overall, 67% of respondents believe some form of compensation should be provided.

Regarding awareness of the ruling party’s proposed COVID-19 profit-sharing system, 35.7% responded that ‘it should not be pursued due to issues with market logic and fairness,’ 34.5% said ‘it can be pursued if companies voluntarily participate and are given incentives,’ and 20.9% supported ‘active promotion including the introduction of new taxes.’ More than half of respondents support pursuing the policy.

The response rate for this survey was 7.6%, and the sample was extracted using weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population data from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety as of the end of December 2020 (cell weighting). The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey methodology, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.