AI culling nears 20 million birds... Broiler Association warns of chicken price surge in 6 months

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Sejong=Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyunjung] As the scale of preventive culling targeting domestic poultry farms due to the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI) approaches 20 million birds, concerns within the related industry are intensifying. In particular, they claim that the rapid decrease in broiler breeder chickens, which produce broiler chicks, could lead to a sharp decline in production volume.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs on the 22nd, as of midnight the previous day, a total of 19.925 million birds including laying hens, broilers, meat ducks, native chickens, and breeders have been culled at domestic poultry farms. Laying hens numbered 9.336 million across 131 farms, broilers 5.594 million across 77 farms, meat ducks 1.623 million across 83 farms, and breeders 936,000 across 25 farms.

As the number of culled birds surges, prices of poultry products are also showing unstable trends. Especially, eggs with no frozen stock saw consumer prices for 10 premium eggs rise sharply by 23.9% year-on-year to 2,187 KRW as of 4 p.m. on the 21st. Duck meat rose 19.8% to 13,327 KRW per kg compared to last year, and broiler meat increased 15.2% to 5,874 KRW per kg.

As of 9 a.m. on the 22nd, there have been 66 confirmed cases of highly pathogenic AI at poultry farms, 2 cases in ornamental birds, and a total of 94 cases in wild birds. Although the spread has somewhat slowed this month, concerns over a sudden cold wave remain, and authorities are viewing this month as a critical period.

The association has expressed concerns about supply and demand instability due to the authorities’ response of 'preventive culling' amid the prolonged AI situation.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

In particular, preventive culling within a 3 km radius of outbreak farms is unprecedented internationally, and the compensation amount related to this is estimated to have exceeded 170 billion KRW as of the 18th. They argue that the increasing burden of compensation payments is worrisome amid concerns over deteriorating fiscal soundness due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

They also pointed out supply and demand issues arising 5 to 6 months later due to production shortages caused by the sharp decline in broiler breeders from preventive culling. The association stated, "The appropriate demand for mother hens in our country is about 8.4 million, but currently 10% of this has disappeared, and if AI continues until spring based on past trends, up to 30% could disappear." They added, "If chicks disappear like this, broiler farms will be unable to raise chickens at all, inevitably leading to a decrease in farming income." Furthermore, they lamented, "Regardless of whether highly pathogenic AI is confirmed, farms included in the 3 km quarantine zone and culled are unable to restock for three months, threatening their livelihoods."

Regarding this, Kim Sang-geun, president of the Korea Broiler Association, said, "We have repeatedly requested the authorities to stop the preventive culling policy, but it is like hitting a rock with an egg." He explained, "If indiscriminate culling continues like this, chicken production will be insufficient in 5 to 6 months, causing chicken prices to soar and imported chicken to dominate the domestic market, which is as clear as day." He emphasized, "AI culling should be based on culling at outbreak farms, but should be conducted considering factors such as the timing of occurrence and reporting within the quarantine zone, livestock species, epidemiological relationships, and quarantine status."

However, the government holds the position that a stronger response is necessary to the rapidly spreading livestock diseases. They aim to end the situation early through faster preventive measures not only for highly pathogenic AI but also for African swine fever (ASF) and foot-and-mouth disease.