[AKYUNG Poll] Yoon Seok-yeol 46.8% vs Lee Nak-yeon 39%, Close Race with Lee Jae-myung

Democratic Party 30.7%, People Power Party 27.6%, People Party 7.6%, Open Democratic Party 7.4%, Justice Party 6.2%
More respondents say Yoon Seok-yeol will not run

Lee Nak-yeon, Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea (left), Yoon Seok-youl, Prosecutor General (center), Lee Jae-myung, Governor of Gyeonggi Province (right)

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Cheol-eung] Public support for Prosecutor General Yoon Seok-yeol in the upcoming presidential election is steadily increasing. Prosecutor General Yoon leads Lee Nak-yeon, the leader of the Democratic Party of Korea and another strong presidential candidate, by a margin beyond the margin of error, while he is ahead of Gyeonggi Province Governor Lee Jae-myung within the margin of error. National support for the incumbent Prosecutor General, who has not declared his candidacy, is likely to be maintained until a clear candidate emerges from the broad opposition camp to which Yoon is expected to belong.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Asia Economy through Win-G Korea Consulting from the 16th to 17th among 1,009 adults nationwide aged 18 and over (100% mobile phone virtual numbers, automated response), Prosecutor General Yoon received 46.8% support in a head-to-head match against Lee Nak-yeon, who garnered 39.0%, putting Yoon 7.8 percentage points ahead.

Compared to the same survey conducted at the end of November last year, Yoon's support rose by 4.3 percentage points, while Lee's support dropped by 3.4 percentage points. Notably, among men, Yoon's support exceeded Lee's by more than 15 percentage points.

In a two-way contest against Governor Lee Jae-myung, Yoon received 45.1% support, while Lee had 42.1%. Yoon's support increased by 3.2 percentage points, whereas Lee's declined slightly by 0.5 percentage points.

However, when asked about the likelihood of Yoon running for president, 45.9% responded that they believe he will not run, which is 12.0 percentage points higher than the 33.9% who said he would run. Those who answered "don't know" accounted for 20.2%. This suggests that while many support Yoon, a significant portion doubts he will actually run.

Yoon's approval rating is rising alongside that of the conservative opposition parties. Party support stands at 30.7% for the Democratic Party, 27.6% for the People Power Party, 7.6% for the People Party, 7.4% for the Open Democratic Party, and 6.2% for the Justice Party. The proportion of undecided voters is 18.5%.

Compared to the previous survey, the Democratic Party's support dropped by 4.0 percentage points, while the People Power Party's support rose by 2.8 percentage points, narrowing the gap between the two parties to within the margin of error.

When asked about potential third candidates within the Democratic Party, the results were as follows: Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun (17.0%), Minister of Justice Choo Mi-ae (12.1%), former Presidential Chief of Staff Lim Jong-seok (7.4%), former lawmaker Kim Boo-kyum (6.4%), lawmaker Lee Kwang-jae (2.3%), and Minister of Unification Lee In-young (2.0%). Although the so-called '86 Generation' potential candidates do not have high support individually, if consolidated into one candidate, they could influence the race.

The leading candidate for the People Power Party's next presidential nominee is Prosecutor General Yoon with 32.0%, followed by lawmaker Hong Joon-pyo (10.7%), former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min (7.2%), Jeju Governor Won Hee-ryong (4.5%), People Power Party Emergency Committee Chairman Kim Jong-in (4.4%), and former lawmaker Hong Jung-wook (2.7%).

Regarding President Moon Jae-in, 46.2% expressed support, while 50.4% did not support him. This marks a 2.6 percentage point decline in approval since the end of November last year.

Regarding the stock market outlook after the KOSPI surpassed the 3,000 mark, 22.4% expect it to rise further, 23.0% expect it to maintain its current level, 23.4% expect a slight decline, and 17.7% expect a significant drop. The outlook for maintenance or increase slightly outweighs the pessimistic views.

This survey was conducted via wireless ARS using 100% mobile phone virtual numbers, with a response rate of 6.5%. The sample was extracted using weighted values by gender, age, and region based on the resident registration population as of the end of December 2020 from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety (cell weighting). The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, please refer to the Win-G Korea Consulting website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.